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Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

  1. #541

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    I can't believe everyone is acting like everything is fine. I'm reading blogs and shaking my head because they are so bullish. It's nuts.
    All the best.

    FS
    I think you are correct there.

    But the market is fine today, real fine!
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

  2.  
  3. #542

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    FS,

    Regarding your NARFE inquiry, it's pretty clear that they didn't even read beyond the third sentence!

    Regarding the market, if we're wrapping up a wave 2 rally then it's getting close to the end and your Friday mention of a target around 1950 is looking good. Right now it's in a little wave 4 for wave 4 of 5 of C...then comes one final jab higher to a peak late today or early tomorrow. If that doesn't happen, and especially if the Zweig Breath Thrust indicator triggers, then the bulls may really have something going here.

    Right now the ZBT is in day 6, and needs to close above 0.615 this week to trigger the rare and very bullish signal...
    $NYADV:$NYTOT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    Meanwhile I'm hunkered down in my bear cave awaiting the next storm, wondering what "bad" news will emerge tomorrow to trigger the start of wave 3 down, which could be the biggest wave of this tsunami/bear market. Back to sleep...

  4.  
  5. #543

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Hi Fab and TS:

    I've been baffled at the amount of excitement by both the bulls and the bears. TS, we are probably using different counts (big surprise huh) ....but by my count, we just completed a flat ABC from the 1/20 low. This is one of the most basic of all EW patterns, and it’s baffled me how excited folks here got over the last 5 trading days. I label this the completion of a B wave, and if correct, then the next wave down will take out the 2/11 low and beyond.

    As I'm posting this the VIX is rising from a low of 19.02 this am, SPX has been trading sideways all day since the gap up this morning, and we haven't breached 1947. That could all be consolidation and there is another leg up...but if those things hold through the close of todays session, I think we start the C wave pullback real soon - maybe tomorrow. I have that wave tracing down to 1780.

    So many things on the radar can make this go in crazy directions: The Fed, The EU CB, Currency, China, Oil, N. Korea?) The ZBT is quite close to .615. Another exciting day tomorrow...sort of a new inflection point...which way will she go?

    Enjoy that bear cave TS! I hope you're enjoying a nice cold beer and some tasty snacks as we lie in hibernation waiting for the next opportunity!

    With respect to NARFE: Clearly dealing with a paper pusher with no understanding of the issues. Will resubmit a new email...a bit more pointed this time and look forward to the next response.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  6.  
  7. #544

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Just an Update. I went back to NARFE with the following email. Let the games begin...
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hello Mr. Reeves:

    Thank you for your response but unfortunately I am not looking for a financial adviser. I am requesting that NARFE take up an important issue with the TSB Board and that issue is to petition for changes to the existing TSP system in a way that benefits all federal employees.

    There are 2 main issues as I see it:

    (a) The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) so federal employees can make better informed decisions regarding their investments.

    (b) That the number of IFTs (currently limited to 2 per month) needs to be increased to a more reasonable number (4 to 6 per month) to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees. As I mentioned in my prior email the TSP Board could charge a reasonable fee per transaction if cost is the reason for the IFT restriction.

    I think NARFE could use your magazine to discuss the issues I've outlined with the current TSP system and get valuable input from current federal staff and retirees to gain the proper perspective for what opportunities should be explored with the TSP Board to improve the TSP.

    Thank You,

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  8.  
  9. #545

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Hi Fab and TS:

    As I'm posting this the VIX is rising from a low of 19.02 this am, SPX has been trading sideways all day since the gap up this morning, and we haven't breached 1947. That could all be consolidation and there is another leg up...but if those things hold through the close of todays session, I think we start the C wave pullback real soon - maybe tomorrow. I have that wave tracing down to 1780.

    So many things on the radar can make this go in crazy directions: The Fed, The EU CB, Currency, China, Oil, N. Korea?) The ZBT is quite close to .615. Another exciting day tomorrow...sort of a new inflection point...which way will she go?

    FS
    After making some stupid poker moves last evening (enjoyed the game with super people nevertheless), I went back into my bear cave to think about todays action. I have been counting these waves as an ABC from the 1/20 lows. Last night I was reading a blog that has a different count and one that is just a reasonable, if perhaps not better reasoned. I was expecting the C wave to initiate a move down to 1780 before meeting resistance. However, the count I read last night shows the market pulling back to 1870 before moving up to the 2000 area. I'm posting it because it differs from my count and makes just as much sense, if not more. Best of luck out there today.

    Attachment 37225

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  10.  
  11. #546

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    I would be a buyer at 1870.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

  12.  
  13. #547

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    If this is a wave B, and that's entirely possible, it might not get as far as 1870...but I would love to see it take it's time and bottom on 3/1 so that poor souls like me who are out of IFTs can take advantage of the ensuing wave C up....which could easily get to 2000 (more and more this market is looking like the 2000-03 bear market I think, very unpredictable huge rallies, then comes the next panic, repeat over and over).

    The problem I see though is that pretty much everyone is bullish now and will be jumping in expecting that next rally...so to me that tilts the odds that it won't happen and instead we're seeing the beginning of wave 3 down today. Either way I'm just watching other than in my non-TSP accounts.

  14.  
  15. #548

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    Busy day today...18 holes of golf followed by beer and wings...sorry I missed the daily action (NOT)..

    Based on a quick review of things though, it would appear that we are likely pulling back tomorrow. The real question is this an (a): limited pullback (say 1870-1900), or is it a (b): the beginning of a more serious pullback. In (a) the market looks like it could rally to 2000...some bulls say 2070. TS said it right in his post (everyone is bullish and waiting to jump on the rally) so "playing the cynic" makes me think (a) is going to be very tricky. BUT if (a) is the way forward expect a lot of chop and dirty water (EU banks, Greece, China, good and bad economic data, cats and dogs living together, etc.) I hesitate to say we're at (b) yet but I think we are getting close. Cliffs have ledges and sooner or later we'll arrive at it.

    But my take today is this: The Saudi oil minister might have just ended the oil and stock rally with his comments today. “There will be no production cuts” – it doesn’t get any more clear than that, no room for misinterpretation there. This should end the production cut rumors once and for all. I've held from the beginning that the whole drama was based on hope and rumors. Iranians and Russians were never serious about cutting but why not go along with the news to gain a few more bucks in a tough market. Venezuelans and Ecuadorians are in for some serious hurt. Venezuela is on the brink of defaulting on their bonds within a year if oil keeps collapsing. How could we possible think an agreement is possible in the current context of rivalry between Russia/Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    So, I think tomorrow oil prices decline and so does the market....at least to 1870-1900.

    More to say but tomorrow is a new day....Best to all of you in your investing.

    FS
    Last edited by FogSailing; 02-23-2016 at 10:05 PM.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  16.  
  17. #549

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    A friend of mine sent me this article which I found very informative. Just FYI.

    Warning with a Capital "W" | Hussman Funds | February 15, 2016

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


  18.  
  19. #550

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    This was just sent to me by NARFE....I don't like the answer because it is "BS" but here it is...
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Jon Dowie <jdowie@narfe.org>
    6:29 AM (26 minutes ago)
    to James, David, me

    Categorize this message as:
    Personal
    Never show this again.

    All,

    I called a TSP employee and talked to her about the questions.
    Neither suggestion can be implemented. She is sending information on why the time cannot be changed (related to how these fund are traded). More than 2 transactions per month (other than the flight to safety – moving funds to the G fund) they found would drive up costs for all participants and the demand was low. Even the cost to modify the system to allow for fees on additional transactions would cost in the tens of millions of dollars.

    Jon

    From: James (AL) Reeves
    Sent: Tuesday, February 23, 2016 2:58 PM
    To: Jon Dowie
    Subject: FW: TSP Board

    FYI:

    From: David Snell
    Sent: Tuesday, February 23, 2016 1:58 PM
    To: James (AL) Reeves
    Subject: RE: TSP Board

    Al – I think Mr. Dowie sits on the TSP board. Why don’t you forward this to him and see what he says.

    David B. Snell, Director
    Federal Benefits Services Department

    dsnell@NARFE.org
    571-483-1269


    From: James (AL) Reeves
    Sent: Tuesday, February 23, 2016 8:11 AM
    To: David Snell
    Subject: TSP Board

    Sir:

    Is this something you feel NARFE can address????

    Thanks

    AL

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I am requesting that NARFE take up an important issue with the TSB Board and that issue is to petition for changes to the existing TSP system in a way that benefits all federal employees.

    There are 2 main issues as I see it:

    (a) The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) so federal employees can make better informed decisions regarding their investments.

    (b) That the number of IFTs (currently limited to 2 per month) needs to be increased to a more reasonable number (4 to 6 per month) to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees. As I mentioned in my prior email the TSP Board could change a reasonable fee per transaction if cost is the reason for the IFT restriction.

    I think NARFE could use your magazine to discuss the issues I've outlined with the current TSP system and get valuable input from current federal staff and retirees to gain the proper perspective for what opportunities should be explored with the TSP Board to improve the TSP.

    Thank You,

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    My thoughts - First, I believe the cost to implement a software change to reflect a fee for service is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars - not millions. Second. we (the feds) are losing millions and millions because the system refuses to make changes that work better for federal employees. This is making the case that we are better off with our money in a Roth 401(k) than in the TSP after retirement.

    Just wanted to update all of you.

    Thanks,

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  20.  
  21. #551

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    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    My response to Mr. Dowie from NARFE
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Hello Mr. Dowie:

    Thank you for responding to my inquiry. As a manager (now retired) of IT for the DOE, I understand IT solutions. I can say that "tens of millions" is not an accurate answer. I would very much appreciate seeing whatever information the TSP Board provides to NARFE. As a retired senior executive, I worked closely with the National Academy for Public Administration and I am aware of how things work in government.

    In my humble opinion, federal employees are losing millions of dollars each year by not having better tools available. The TSP Board is already aware of the losses in holdings because those with higher value portfolios (especially retirees) are pulling and moving them to outside accounts.

    I do think that most federal staff are uninformed regarding the TSP system and the markets and fail to optimize their TSP accounts, however the current slate of tools available to federal employees is not able to do the job in this sophisticated market environment. Things have changed dramatically since 1987 and the TSP needs updating. Improvement does require some level of investment.

    Again, thank you for taking the time to make the inquiry. I appreciate all that NARFE does to protect our federal benefits.

    Regards,

    FS
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  22.  
  23. #552

    Default Re: FogSailing's Account Talk

    hmmm, some things to think about...

    tsp administrative costs have risen dramatically since the 2 ift rule was introduced, evidence shows actively limiting ifts increases costs not lowers them, show us your books,

    brokerages like schwab, scottrade, etc offer way lower administrative costs and real-time exchange traded funds (etf's) with unlimited free trades that parallel the c s & i funds plus much more,

    the immediate answer from tsp gov was: "can't", "too expensive", "too difficult", "no time" (why does the free market always have a better solution than captive gov),

    i am backing my tsp contributions back down to 5% for the free matching money and putting the rest in an ira instead, and as soon as i can get clear of this cumbersome, lumbering, blood-sucking dinosaur of a trading platform called tsp then i am taking it all out.

    why bother.
    100g

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