Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

I think that is exactly correct Raven. Still think SPX is going to bounce to 1956 pivot or thereabouts... but it's looking like todays bull trap worked and the bounce is postponed till next week. The oil volatility is not a good thing for pension investors. Best of luck next week.

FS

One of the analysts I follow posted this chart of his expected pattern for SPX. As always, you never know what or when an unexpected event will change the market...but he is suggesting we pullback to about 1860 then rally to 2000 before another big downturn. Here it is ..

Attachment 37168

FS

Good articles: one on crude oil and the other on risk and momentum:

Was That A Monster Failed Breakdown In Crude Oil? - All Star Charts -

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Think Another Crash Is "Impossible"? Think Again

FS

My Email to NARFE Legislative Branch sent yesterday:

Hello:

I have written NARFE on this concern before but I have never received a response. I am a retiree with a large chunk of change in the TSP. Many people who retire elect to move their funds into private accounts because of constraints imposed by the existing system on how they can manage those funds. No system is ever perfect but TSP is somewhat outdated in todays volatile market environment and could do better by federal employees.

For example, the Buy and Hold strategy may work fine for bull markets but not bear markets. The Lifecycle Funds likely work well in the bull market environment but employees are at a huge downside risk in a bear market. If they want to help us grow our accounts, there should be some better options on the table for one of the largest pension accounts in the country.

As someone who follows the market daily, I can tell you that the 12pm cut-off for making investment decisions is not helpful, and in fact this limitation has probably cost federal employees millions of lost dollars in our retirement savings. The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) to make it work better for federal employees.

Also, the number of monthly IFTs at two per month is draconian and is not aligned with market reality. I can understand that the IFTs should have limits because of costs incurred to post transactions. So, the TSP Board could add additional IFTs (say 5 per month), or could charge for additional IFTs over the 2 provided by the TSP per month, but somehow the number of IFTs needs to be increased to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees.

I know that if NARFE took up this issue and queried federal employees and retirees on their opinions, they would receive a lot of good feedback for improving the TSP. The limitations we face are not legislative issues, they are management issues and I would appreciate it if NARFE would represent retirees and federal employees in working to improve this condition for feds.

Thank You.

FS (Name withheld to protect the innocent)

Final Comment: I hope someone answers me this time. Worth a try.

Originally Posted by FogSailing

One of the analysts I follow posted this chart of his expected pattern for SPX. As always, you never know what or when an unexpected event will change the market...but he is suggesting we pullback to about 1860 then rally to 2000 before another big downturn. Here it is ..

Attachment 37168


FS

Nice chart FS and it fits perfectly with what I'm thinking. So I will take 1860 - 1870...Waiting patiently to launch the plan.

For those that try to follow the most recent news events: read Zero hedge. He has a lot of news there I'm not seeing anywhere else and quite frankly it's very troubling.

Zero Hedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

My Email to NARFE Legislative Branch sent yesterday:

Hello:

I have written NARFE on this concern before but I have never received a response. I am a retiree with a large chunk of change in the TSP. Many people who retire elect to move their funds into private accounts because of constraints imposed by the existing system on how they can manage those funds. No system is ever perfect but TSP is somewhat outdated in todays volatile market environment and could do better by federal employees.

For example, the Buy and Hold strategy may work fine for bull markets but not bear markets. The Lifecycle Funds likely work well in the bull market environment but employees are at a huge downside risk in a bear market. If they want to help us grow our accounts, there should be some better options on the table for one of the largest pension accounts in the country.

As someone who follows the market daily, I can tell you that the 12pm cut-off for making investment decisions is not helpful, and in fact this limitation has probably cost federal employees millions of lost dollars in our retirement savings. The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) to make it work better for federal employees.

Also, the number of monthly IFTs at two per month is draconian and is not aligned with market reality. I can understand that the IFTs should have limits because of costs incurred to post transactions. So, the TSP Board could add additional IFTs (say 5 per month), or could charge for additional IFTs over the 2 provided by the TSP per month, but somehow the number of IFTs needs to be increased to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees.

I know that if NARFE took up this issue and queried federal employees and retirees on their opinions, they would receive a lot of good feedback for improving the TSP. The limitations we face are not legislative issues, they are management issues and I would appreciate it if NARFE would represent retirees and federal employees in working to improve this condition for feds.

Thank You.

FS (Name withheld to protect the innocent)

Final Comment: I hope someone answers me this time. Worth a try.

here comes the boom.

ok boys, tired of getting pushed around by the blackrock market sychophant nerds? it's time to ride. write your narfe rep. push it. here comes the boom.

Originally Posted by ravensfan

I for one am rooting for Mr. Market to be flat to down today and down Friday, Monday and Tuesday. If that happens, I'm thinking of buying in COB Tuesday and then out by Friday. So I'm looking for a little bit of a pullback until early next week and then another dead cat bounce.

At least that's what the tea leaves are telling me at this point...

I'm getting a little worried with all this talk about dead cats.

Originally Posted by jpcavin

I'm getting a little worried with all this talk about dead cats.

Relax JP...we are talking domestic cats here, not the mighty cougar...

or should I say Judy, Judy, Judy...

the best part about being a dog is when they let you off the chain.