Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Well... you have been doing Great FMW! Congratulations!!!

Thanks Annie,

Thought of you the other night. On a long overnight drive I stopped at a big truck rest stop, and looked for some cheap CD's to keep me awake. Saw the best of Heart...with Dreamboat Annie as one of the songs.

Otherwise, I wish I paid more attention to the F-Fund (below).
The chart looks primed for a few days of uptick, and with todays F gains I could have padded the monthly stats a bit in quest of a possible TSP mug (lol).




Oh well, doesn't really matter...the best gains will be timing re-entrance into stocks this month and picking the right fund. Will actually look at I fund as a possibility.

Yeeaawwn...

Was toying with using 2nd IFT to jump in today...as we've been down 4 of 5 days, but overslept this morning (lol).

Might be a blessing in disguise...but we are due for a DCB soon, unless we're seeing more of a critical structural failure in our markets.
Stocks showing a bit of reversal from earlier lows today, that's how the DCB's tend to start.

Speaking of structural failure...big story, major realtors finally succumbing to online retail.
Santa Claus rally's typically revolve around retail numbers going higher, like they've done the past 5-6 years. This year promises to be different, not due to less buying, just less at big box stores, as even Grandpa is starting to figure out how to buy that new fishing rod online with his new Android phone his granddaughter gave him last Christmas.

So our headqinds going into the holidays are:

- Poor Retail Numbers
- Fed Rate Hike Looming
- Falling Oil and Strengthening Dollar.

This years Santa Claus rally might be some lumps of coal in the stockings...

Nnuut has a good playlist of Oscar Carboni Video's, very much liked by Show-Me...who was very liked here.

This latest one was very interesting...remember he's sometimes overly bullish, so when he has a negative market outlook, that's significant.



Another good technical analysis one (again from Nnuut) is this one.

Hmmm....Maybe my 2nd IFT will be into the -F- fund.

F fund.jpg

Mass France Terrorist attack changes things a bit.

Either it will accelerate further downslide of stocks. or, as is the case when the US military industrial machine gets going, it makes stocks shoot upward.
All will depend on how the geopolitical stuff plays out...so basically my thoughts are if the market gives a strong signal one way or the other, that's where my IFT will go.
Either F or a combo of C/S/I.

Tough choice today, not getting a clear feel.

Feel that the medium term (next few weeks) will be down. That supports going in -F-.

Short term, we're due for at least a DCB. But when do you go in for that (ie trying to catch a falling knife).

Doing OK so far this month. Sometimes the best move in that case is the one you don't make.
Will think about it some more, but leaning on staying put for today.

A nice post from Tom and possible breakout in the Dow Transports.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-s...t-outlook.html

Even though I won't fight the Fed next month, when rates likely to rise, I won't fight a breakout above the 200 day EMA and positive Holiday Bias where ":irrational exuberance" can continue the rally. We'll see, but my system calls for me to be in stocks most of the time, exiting briefly at new highs. So if we have another 1-2% to go upward in the next 1-2 weeks then I don't want to stay out of my system any longer.

Going in fully...50/50 split between S and I. Would be nice to stay invested into early Dec and reap some profits if we get near new highs (or higher).

FMW,
Check the tracker (rearview mirror) I see you.

Now if I can just slide Boricua out of the way I will be able to shake FWM's hand.

Congrats on a great year WorkFE.



Am a bit concerned here though...
TSP Talk - Sentiment Survey

A bit early but so far so good. looks like we will give a good bit back today. Gotta pay the pit boss.