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Thread: hurricane links

  1. #1

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    Post imported post



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  3. #2

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    Default HURRICANE INFO

    204603W5_NL_sm.jpg
    Hurricane JOAQUIN


    Current information:
    Hurricane JOAQUIN


    Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory


    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 012045
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
    500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 JOAQUIN MOVING THROUGH THE
    CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
    ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
    TONIGHT...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.0N 74.4W
    ABOUT 15 M....25 KM NW OF CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS
    ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Central Bahamas
    * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
    Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
    * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
    Bahamas

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Bimini
    * Andros Island

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
    Caicos Islands
    * Andros Island

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
    property should be complete in the central Bahamas.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
    located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 74.4 West. Joaquin is
    moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a westward or
    southwestward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
    north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is
    expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
    center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central
    Bahamas tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern
    Bahamas on Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
    tonight and Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible
    Friday night and Saturday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
    (280 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
    of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
    conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
    tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other
    portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
    Islands through tonight.

    STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
    raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide
    levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
    surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
    remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
    the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
    waves.

    RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
    of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
    amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
    expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
    northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening
    flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of
    eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight.

    SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
    Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
    of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread
    northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of
    Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
    large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant
    beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


  4.  
  5. #3

    Default Re: imported post

    lol this thread was from 2005 and only had 1 post

  6.  
  7. #4

    Default Re: imported post

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    lol this thread was from 2005 and only had 1 post
    some fears are easier to spread than other fears?
    100g

  8.  
  9. #5

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    Default Re: imported post

    Now, now this is a good public service announcement. Good for James posting a link and for looking for a thread that existed instead of starting a new one.

    Those living on the East Coast of the US would be well advised to watch the link given starting Sunday. High surf for surfers and possible coastal flooding.

    Fears? James could have gone to some of the media who are predicting the East Coast will no longer exist soon. "Worse than Sandy" seems to be the theme. Instead he went to NOAA's NHC site where they issue worst case scenarios lest the US Gov be sued yet again by a "I thought I could ride it out, nobody told me what could happen" person. So they have been told what could happen. CYA world.

    Best of luck to any in the path or it's edges. A big rain event I think coming after the recent big rain event.

    FWIW I read a news article from NY that stated the recent rains were from Hurricane Joaquin. Not. Hey FWM, jump in here and give us some professional input. Heavy rains on the East coast this week had not a lot to do with any Hurricane.

    PO

    arrrgh

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: imported post

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post
    Now, now this is a good public service announcement. Good for James posting a link and for looking for a thread that existed instead of starting a new one.
    +1.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: imported post

    Current predictions have JOAQUIN moving northeast and missing landfall in the US. However warnings are out for heavy surf and possible flooding


    Joaquin.png



    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 021150
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
    800 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
    BATTERS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
    ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
    TODAY...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.4N 74.8W
    ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
    ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Central Bahamas
    * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
    Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
    * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
    Bahamas

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Bimini
    * Andros Island

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
    Caicos Islands
    * Andros Island
    * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A
    Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required later today.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
    located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Joaquin is
    drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster
    northward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a
    turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed tonight
    and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds
    of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and
    northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the
    Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Joaquin is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
    Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
    possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to
    begin on Saturday.

    Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
    center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
    (335 km).

    The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
    Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
    of the central and southeastern Bahamas through today. Hurricane
    and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
    northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect
    other portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
    Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
    of eastern Cuba through this morning.

    STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
    raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
    levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
    surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
    remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
    the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
    waves.

    RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
    of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
    amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
    expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
    northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic,
    and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in
    life-threatening flash floods.

    SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
    Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect
    portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will
    spread northward along the east coast of the United States through
    the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
    and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a
    prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will
    affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune
    erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    May the force be with us.

  14.  
  15. #8

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    Default Hurricane Links

    UhOH, look what I failed to do with the thread title. Serves me right for pointing that out elsewhere.

    PO

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  17. #9

    Default Re: imported post

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post

    FWIW I read a news article from NY that stated the recent rains were from Hurricane Joaquin. Not. Hey FWM, jump in here and give us some professional input. Heavy rains on the East coast this week had not a lot to do with any Hurricane.

    PO

    arrrgh
    Associated with the Hurricane yes.
    Directly result of...no.


    See upper air chart (below) with pressure (black lines), winds (barbs) and humidity (green to darker green means higher humidity (aka moisture) at about 10,000 ft level.
    Notice that the regular low pressure over NW Florida (red L) is pulling in a narrow (but copious) band of tropical moisture (green area) from the hurricane (red H) and entraining that moisture in its counter-clockwise flow, streaming it into the Ohio Valley where the dynamics of the Florida low squeezes that moisture out (dark green) producing heavy rain well away from the hurricane center. .

    So the hurricane might be half the reason of the heavy rain...which would most likely only be light to moderate rain if we were only dealing with the NW Florida low.
    In weather its rare that only one weather system causes everything...often its a combination of 2 or more weather systems.
    But the changed forecast for the NE coast is due to the models in the last 24 hours shifting away from an inland hurricane track...combining it with the Florida low...and now the models are keeping the core of the hurricane separate, and offshore. So the moisture entrainment from the hurricane will be the only hurricane effects on rainfall...instead of the core of the hurricane itself, which would have been devastating.

    Hope that clears it up a little.


    Hurricane.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


  18.  
  19. #10

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    Default Re: Hurricane Links

    OK so Joaquin was part of the source of the moisture. I get it. Happens here occasionally when there is a tropical cyclone in the Lower California area.

    FWIW I read a news article from NY that stated the recent rains were from Hurricane Joaquin.


    My point was that at the time the center of Joaquin was somewhere between Bermuda and the Turks and Caicos. So the heavy rains were hardly announcing the hurricanes arrival.

    Thanks for the input FWM.

    PO

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  21. #11

    Default Re: imported post

    I do vaguely remember a similar but more elongated moisture tap from the hurricane up thru the northeast. So partially enhanced but not directly of the hurricane. There was a cold front that normally would produce light to moderate rain but it was able to tap some of the hurricanes moisture and send it 800 miles further north.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #12

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    Default Hurricane Links

    Much better than WAAKEEN hitting a major city in the USA, I know I've been in a bunch of them even a Typhoon off Okinawa in 1968 Old Della was a real Ball Buster. Hugo went dead center over my house in Charleston, great fun in the middle of the night, two weeks no power, BBQ every day. MORE!
    Last edited by nnuut; 10-04-2015 at 08:42 AM.



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