Thread: FogSailing's Account Talk

Originally Posted by FogSailing

It's frightening that ideas about leadership have to come from the media instead of the officials in charge.

i find it frightening that we look to the gov officials in charge for market leadership.

Attachment 35001

Roadtrip::

Off to Seattle for about 10 days for our best friend's daughters wedding. Will miss the forum for the next couple of weeks. All the best to you guys. I hope the market gives back all it has taken but be careful out there: SHARK INFESTED WATERS!

FS

Enjoy your vacation!

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Attachment 35001

Roadtrip::

Off to Seattle for about 10 days for our best friend's daughters wedding. Will miss the forum for the next couple of weeks. All the best to you guys. I hope the market gives back all it has taken but be careful out there: SHARK INFESTED WATERS!

FS

Looks like a future avatar for me. Enjoy your vacation.

Originally Posted by Minnow

Looks like a future avatar for me. Enjoy your vacation.

What a trip!!!Literally!!! Not in the Timothy Leary sense.

The trip north was fantastic. We spent 3 days in Seattle...just being tourists. Great city and wonderful food. We stayed at the Edgewater which is where the Beatles stayed when they performed there 50 years ago. The young lady who checked us in was cool and gave us a tour of the Beatle's Suite. Since my wife channels the Beatles it was a highlight for her. I really like the Beatle's too, but I'm more Rolling Stones than Beatles. Also enjoyed a Seahawks game against San Diego with the wedding party, a trip to the Underground and Pike Place Market. Cool time. Our best friend's daughter got married at Lake Stevens north of Seattle. Her new hubby is from Australia and the coolest thing was that about 30 friends and family flew all the way from Australia to attend. What a great bunch of people and while it had been chilly there our first few days, the weather was sunny and mild for the wedding. We loved the Australians so much that we accepted their invitation to travel to Perth next April to enjoy the "Barbie on the beach...with Foster's of course".

I had never done Highway 1 from Crescent City, CA down to San Francisco so that was the next leg. I have to say though, I rediscovered my fear of heights on this trip. The highway says 45mph on hairpin turns at 1500 feet on cliffs with no guardrails. I'm simply not capable of performing those acrobatics any longer...so while it's beautiful, I don't think I'll drive the northern route again. We visited Ft Bragg where they have the "seaglass beaches" and were thoroughly blown away by all the seaglass. Beyond cool. Next was the Redwoods National Forest and if you haven't done this, you owe yourself a big favor and need to see them. Talk about feeling like a speck in the universe...what huge beautiful trees. Then we spent time in Bedego Bay so I could see the house that Al Hitchcock used for filming "The Birds"; not to mention eating at the Birds Café which serves the best Seagull sandwich.

I was enjoying checking the forum occasionally while on the trip; but the best post was Donkey's Secret. I couldn't help but laughing so hard my wife thought I was going bonkers.! Anyways, be checking things out for Monday's action. My prediction: market is up on Monday and bonds are even or down a little....always fun to speculate. Glad to be back home! Now, I hope they catch whatever crazy is taking pot shots at tourists on 1-10. Can you believes the craziness? All the best to you next week in your investing.

FS

Decided to play "psychic" at home this weekend....too much time on my hands....oh yeah!!

So after reading quite a few forums and the comments of many smart guys the last few days, I laid out some market projections for the next 24 weeks. It's all assumptions and guesswork. I'll enjoy watching reality tear the model apart (starting with week 1) but it did help me think through what could logically happen with a market still in correction. Thought I'd share. Feel free to add your thoughts and ideas. It makes me really appreciate the work that goes into creating algorithms and modeling scenarios. I did some of that back in the early nineties when I got my Masters Degree but the wheels don't turn as fast these days and I'm not going to try to remember linear programming. If I had used a true algorithm with probabilities, the chart would likely look very different because it would season in prior history, seasonality, moon cycles, rate external events, etc. and probably be much better at identifying when the ups and down would come. My two biggest assumptions were to project a lower high (Dec 2015) and a bottom (Feb 2016)...all guesswork but still fun to play with.

All the best to you in your investing!

FS

Found this article of interest in marketplace.

For bears, this chart is worth 500 words - MarketWatch

FS

25 minutes to decide what to do. SPX most likely pivots at 1960 and begins an upward trend to about 2004 according to my chart. It's at 1974 and holding. Does it continue down today? I'm thinking not.. but don't have anything to back that up...I hate that. I don't feel like the shorts are going to make a mint today, they cleaned up yesterday. Technical guidance says momentum continues downward but could zigzag. If I IFT, going partial C/partial S fund. Won't stay in long if I go in and may wait till Monday; I'll be out in October and enjoying the Lily Pad unless something dramatic changes the playing field. All the best to you in your investing.

FS

So last night I'm preaching "Patience" to DBA and this morning I'm wringing my hands to get in.....forgive me DBA

At 6:30am I was up and about and read on the EW page that if the SPX broke 1899 that the bottom was likely in for the immediate future; then saw that Cactus was going F, jonfresno and Raven are moving into in equities, and Clester is holding but has his finger on the button based on Forum and Autotracker. This continues (all quiet like) until 7:48am when the 2nd Coffee pot completes and i go to fetch coffee for me and my #1. That gets us into a small discussion on the news crawl AND suddenly the day takes over my life (chores, groceries, schedules and doctors appts). So, I'm back to check in 2 hours later to find that Whipsaw, MacDaddy, Clester, JTH, and Amoeba are in equities, and Cactus changed his mind and went equities and this happened in the few minutes I was away from action. If Tsunami had jumped in, I think I'd have started chopping off appendages as sacrifice to the stock gods...

I'm bummed but Good Luck to you guys.

The morale of the story is don't whine nobody cares, and don't get addicted to morning coffee...

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

So last night I'm preaching "Patience" to DBA and this morning I'm wringing my hands to get in.....forgive me DBA

At 6:30am I was up and about and read on the EW page that if the SPX broke 1899 that the bottom was likely in for the immediate future; then saw that Cactus was going F, jonfresno and Raven are moving into in equities, and Clester is holding but has his finger on the button based on Forum and Autotracker. This continues (all quiet like) until 7:48am when the 2nd Coffee pot completes and i go to fetch coffee for me and my #1. That gets us into a small discussion on the news crawl AND suddenly the day takes over my life (chores, groceries, schedules and doctors appts). So, I'm back to check in 2 hours later to find that Whipsaw, MacDaddy, Clester, JTH, and Amoeba are in equities, and Cactus changed his mind and went equities and this happened in the few minutes I was away from action. If Tsunami had jumped in, I think I'd have started chopping off appendages as sacrifice to the stock gods...

I'm bummed but Good Luck to you guys.

The morale of the story is don't whine nobody cares, and don't get addicted to morning coffee...

FS

I am anticipating Tsunami to jump in tomorrow. I think I read he is out of IFT's until then...Hang in there buddy! Lots of us care!

Interesting link about Years Ending in "5"

Stock Market Analysis for the Nasdaq

FS