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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #265

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Not wanting to spook anyone...but this is a little disconcerting.

    S-Fund long term chart going back about 12 years (using Vanguards Small Cap ETF)


    Attachment 30435
    Well, guess I should have listened to myself and the charts on the above post 17 days ago (lol).
    Instead I got to ride over Niagara Falls in a barrel..but vowed a week ago to not sell during the free fall...instead wait for either "the bottom" or at least a Dead Cat Bounce.
    So with the big surge (esp on the small caps) over the past 3 days, the question is...which one is it"?

    There are some pro and con arguments regarding where we are. Some think that our Wed intra-day capitulation a few days ago suggest we've hit a bottom:

    The bottom is in! Jon Najarian has 3 reasons to get back into the market

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-bo...140521567.html


    But others suggest we still have a ways to go. One is from Doug Kass (thanks to Mr Bowl):

    7 Reasons a Recession's More Likely than You Think

    Doug Kass: 7 Reasons a Recession's More Likely than You Think - TheStreet

    Another was yesterday from Jeff Macke:

    Stocks haven't bottomed yet

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-mo...113449111.html

    In it he pointed to the AAII Sentiment Survey ending week of Oct 15th that not only had an overly bullish sentiment but that it was an INCREASE in bullishness from the previous week. (below)

    Sentiment.PNG

    Not sure what our Sentiment survey said. If anyone has an "unofficial" number they might have seen a few hrs before the close of the survey, could you post it? Or if its the actual number maybe a PM would be better. Curious.

    Anyway, I've sometimes noticed and read from others (maybe Tom's discussions) that once you fall below the 200 day EMA, it can initially act as resistance on your first push back upwards. Seems that's what happened here (S&P) below, as the S&P came within one point of the 200 Day EMA and turned tail like a scolded dog back to the 1886 level:

    S&P.PNG

    So bottom line, I locked in a 2-3% jump and bailed into the G. Am ready to jump right back in as early as Monday on a down day, but will see how early next week unfolds. Any Ebola, Putin, or negative QE news can fulfill this recent jump as a dead cat with another downward leg to go. But a further drop from here, similar to the initial fall (flag-pole effect) would make this a 13%-15% correction, maybe more than the current market should drop to, especially with sold jobs numbers recently (near quarter million new jobs and 5.9% unemployment). My bet is that we will retest the recent lows, and maybe drop a bit lower, and at that, barring catastrophic Ebola news, would make me buy in again. Did not want to be in equities Monday morning with all this volatility following a 2-3% uptick in past 3 trading days. Thats a big upward move, and when you are volatile, the next big move is often in the opposite direction. We'll see.
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 10-17-2014 at 04:21 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #266

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Not much time to expand much, but have jumped back all in...50% S and 50% C.
    After the first surge off last weeks panic sell off I jumped out to lock in some gains and hedge against a Dead Cat Bounce. But Cramers take that last weeks Wednesday sell-off was to him, the bottom, seems to be coming true. To him, Ebola uncertainties were at least 50% responsible for the selloff, with Oil, Europe and China the other 50%. Now everything is stabilizing on that end, and because we have OVER-sold so much, the bounce back up is pretty furious, and todays action makes the charts NOT fit a Dead Cat Bounce pattern anymore.

    Times like this there is never a good time to get in...so the quicker you decide to go in, the better. If not, there is always a move OUT we all have available, which would not be a wasted move given we're in the latter days of the month.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #267

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  7. #268

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Good move. I shudda, woulda, coulda, "if I only had a brain" (and an IFT left.)
    Last edited by konakathy; 10-23-2014 at 11:56 PM.

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  9. #269

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by konakathy View Post
    Good move. I shudda, woulda, coulda, "if I only had a brain" (and an IFT left.)
    You might be the smarter one.
    Futures are down tonight (thanks to latest Ebola scare). Would be a good jump in day IMHO.

    Futures.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #270

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Except for it's Friday. 2 extra days of Ebola histeria could make Monday a better jump in day.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.


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  13. #271

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    S Fund up over 10% in 10 days?

    Is it just me, or are we well into oversold territory and teetering for a short term sell-off???

    Seems the main talking heads are crediting today's action with an "anticipated" Fed announcement tomorrow.
    Runs the risk of a "buy the rumor...sell the news" even ifs the good news expected is announced.
    And we're not even factoring in the "what if" something negative comes from the Fed tomorrow.

    Anyone know what time the Fed Press Briefing is supposed to occur tomorrow?
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #272

    Join Date
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    El Paso Texas
    Posts
    11,563

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    S Fund up over 10% in 10 days?

    Is it just me, or are we well into oversold territory and teetering for a short term sell-off???

    Seems the main talking heads are crediting today's action with an "anticipated" Fed announcement tomorrow.
    Runs the risk of a "buy the rumor...sell the news" even ifs the good news expected is announced.
    And we're not even factoring in the "what if" something negative comes from the Fed tomorrow.

    Anyone know what time the Fed Press Briefing is supposed to occur tomorrow?
    Don't you mean overbought?
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  17. #273

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    S Fund up over 10% in 10 days?

    Is it just me, or are we well into oversold (correction...over-bought) territory and teetering for a short term sell-off???

    Seems the main talking heads are crediting today's action with an "anticipated" Fed announcement tomorrow.
    Runs the risk of a "buy the rumor...sell the news" even ifs the good news expected is announced.
    And we're not even factoring in the "what if" something negative comes from the Fed tomorrow.

    Anyone know what time the Fed Press Briefing is supposed to occur tomorrow?
    Quote Originally Posted by Bquat View Post
    Don't you mean overbought?
    Thanks Bquat. Corrected in red.
    Any opinions?
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  19. #274

    Join Date
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    1,640

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Thanks Bquat. Corrected in red.
    Any opinions?
    I think Bquat was correct as well.

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  21. #275

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I know, thats why I corrected it.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #276

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    I know, thats why I corrected it.
    You really don't get my goofy humor, do you. Hello? Is this thing on?

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