Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

If this goes as typical there will be lower lows next week. I thought about jumping out today and getting back in on wed to play that, but ran out of time this morning. Good luck to us all

I would think with Germany's DAX (10% of I Fund) closed today and Europe/Asia closed after the 12pm push higher we will have some positive follow-through on Monday. We are the engine, but the other train cars are important.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

If this goes as typical there will be lower lows next week. I thought about jumping out today and getting back in on wed to play that, but ran out of time this morning. Good luck to us all

Since I stayed in I hope you're right.

Originally Posted by OBXTrader

I would think with Germany's DAX (10% of I Fund) closed today and Europe/Asia closed after the 12pm push higher we will have some positive follow-through on Monday. We are the engine, but the other train cars are important.

The good news is that for the first time in a long time the market followed a pattern that I built my trading strategy around. While this has been a minor correction in the C fund, or maybe the magnitude is too small to even call it a correction, the S fun is down about 8 percent or so since Sept 2. I moved out of the S fund on Sept 10th and that wasn't too bad. My move back into the S fund COB on 9/29 was for the wrong reason and it cost me. If I had been disciplined today would've been my buy in day. So, as far as closing numbers go, today might be a lower close than we saw last Wednesday. If I had managed my time better last Friday I would've moved to the G Fund, and back into the S Fund today, as mentioned in my post last week. It always feels good when the strategy works out.

But in this case it didn't work out because I didn't follow it. So, more discipline is needed in the future. That's always an internal battle that some of us fight. Anyway, the other good news is that if the strategy continues to verify we will begin a very healthy rally tomorrow or Thursday, and the first 3 to 5 days will produce the bulk of the gains. Good luck to us all!

Looks like the bottom has hit. This is working out nicely

Aren't you glad you didn't panic? I am still insanely under-exposed to stocks right now, but glad I am in the game in the TSP. Told you we are the engine, watch Europe follow-through tomorrow.

If we could pick the tops and bottoms, we would be jillionaires. That said, buying on October 2nd, was the second best day for me to invest in the L2030 besides yesterday.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

Looks like the bottom has hit. This is working out nicely

Originally Posted by OBXTrader

Aren't you glad you didn't panic? I am still insanely under-exposed to stocks right now, but glad I am in the game in the TSP. Told you we are the engine, watch Europe follow-through tomorrow.

If we could pick the tops and bottoms, we would be jillionaires. That said, buying on October 2nd, was the second best day for me to invest in the L2030 besides yesterday.

Yeah, so far, so good on this one. I hope Europe responds, and we respond to their up day tomorrow. The next 5 trading days are very important. Of course, I hope that the market moves several % points upward before thinking about leveling off.

Today is a very disappointing day. It doesn't necessarily break the pattern and negate the strategy because the low/buy-in day is soft. My day 4 buy-in is a historical average.

Today is potentially a bad sign and there needs to be no further downside. This is why there are no sure things and investing was never promised to be easy.

I will avoid the panic and stay the course. I still expect to have a positive October.

Obviously, the bottom didn't hit last Tuesday as I'd hoped. That means that this correction is a bit more serious. My stance has gone from confident to stubborn and those can both be costly mindsets.

I don't know if yesterday was the bottom, but it sure seems that investors are very skittish and there is heavy selling in the final hour last day. That's probably partly due to fear and partly due to people/hedge funds having to liquidate because they became over leveraged.

It's been about 6 weeks since the peak. Today doesn't make me think that we hit our "V" bottom and we're shooting up on high volume, so who knows how the rest of the week will go. I do know that the elevator that I rode down is the one I want to be on for the ride up, so I'll stay put.

The elevator started up last week. I should not beat myself up too much because I declared the 7th my buy in day, while the 15th or 16th would have been better. But, a perfect set of moves would've saved a few more percent. That's all behind us now. The S fund is up more than 4 percent since the 13th, and today will add to that. It's hard to believe that this could happen during the darkest hour, but that is occasionally the way the market rebounds. That's why I referenced Oct 2011. Remember, after the V low on the 4th of that year the S fund rallied 17 percent. It's a rocketship ride that you don't want to miss.

Every day the market is open I'm buying something - simply dollar cost averaging my dividends. It's the simple way to build wealth. The longer the market remains weak the more shares I can accumulate and that provides a larger dividend three months later. I'm really looking forward to December.