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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #181

    Default Re: totally agree

    Well,
    So far staying in and not getting spooked has a chance to pay off.
    S Fund did what it has done for over a year (see below)...brief dip to 20 or 50 Day EMA..and now slightly above old high. Trend as been a rise to new highs...usually 2-3% above previous high.

    So the plan is to stay invested (currently S & I) until S fund is about 2% above recent high...then briefly go to cash for the next brief dip.

    S Fund.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #182

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Part of growing and learning as an investor is to not let fear (or other emotions) get a hold of you during a sell-off.

    Looking at the past 2 years (below) we see that a drop to where we are now (near 100 day EMA) has resulted in a -V- bottom 4 times over the past 12 months. This would suggest a turn around is in order, and suggests staying put.

    You have to go back to 2012 to see 2 dropoffs to the 200 day EMA that had a bit more complexity and depth (down to 200 day EMA). This would suggest that selling now might be in order...but remain ready to get back in.

    Will ponder this a bit more...Tom has a good writeup on his nightly report...indicating that we might see a quick bounce to a right shoulder build back to near 1825 before more prolonged damage.
    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tspt...bound-yet.html

    Given the complexity and magnitude of issues beginning to take center stage...Emerging Markets Crisis...China Economic and Bank Crisis...and waning QE in the US (and EU) maybe we should not have been so quick to have poo-pooed Tom's "3 peaks and dome" comparison to 1929?
    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talks-...tml#post437309

    SP.jpg
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 01-27-2014 at 11:43 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #183

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Used 1st IFT of Feb to shift temporarily (I hope) into 100% G. This was COB Feb 4th, exiting on a near1% up day.
    It was not based on fear, panic or utter capitulation. It was based on a combination of strategy/tactics described below.

    All thru the exuberance of the past year,and the hot bull market of the past 5 years, it was widely acknowledged that this was "Big Bens" market. His invisible QE hand providing instant support at nearly every downturn. Questions arose if we were developing a "QE Bubble Market", with many on this site echoing that sentiment. That convinced me that I would never allow myself to be caught in the big downturn that would surely occur when the Fed/QE bubble bursts.

    Question is...WHEN would this be? Would it be when QE goes to zero? Very unlikely; since the market is a forward looking indicator...instead, it is much more likely that the bubble would begin to burst when a steady unwinding would be well underway....with the "zero QE" date looming 6 months in the future. If so, then the "future" is NOW. Unwinding from 85 Bil to 65 Bil in 2 months....a rate of 10 Billion/month...the Fed has sent a clear message - barring a catastrophic economic event (NOT a 10% stock pullback), they're going to continue to unwind QE by 10 Bil/month...and at that rate in 3 months (90 days) QE will be 35 Billion (40% of original 85 Bil)...and then 2 months later QE would be at a negligible 15 Bil (only 20% of original QE). At that point, QE is so small its basically zero already. The market would likely start correcting well before this...and made me start thinking"is this what we're seeing now?

    JTH had a great post of what happens when stocks in January drop below the previous months (Dec) low. Basically, whatever the fall is at that point in January (-3%...-7%, whatever) there is...on average...an additional 11% of continued downfall in the short term.
    JTH's Account Talk

    Is this possible? Can the market really go down that far? Not usually,unless a longer term "bubble" is burst (Tech Bubble 2000...Real Estate Bubble 2008...and just maybe...QE Bubble 2014???). Not to mention Emerging Market Crisis AND China Shadow Bank Crisis. So far, we've only had roughly a 5% downturn since Jan 1st. Looking at Sentiment Survey and just judging by the posts of many here, there is only a little "fear" so far. Looking at the "Cycle of Market Emotions" below, I'd say we're only in and around the "Denial" to "Fear" level so far. The levels of "Panic" "Despondency" and "Capitulation" are just not there yet...and that means there is more room for sellers and shorts to roam....since at this time there is no "Big Ben" riding to the rescue with his QE lasso.



    However,a look at the charts does show what normally resembles a good buy in opportunity...a 2-3% drop, followed by a dead cat bounce followed by a lower low. Normally it would be a smart place to start buying right around now (below).

    But at this point, we are so close to the 200 day EMA, that it might end up being a self fulfilling prophecy.
    So I cut my losses, in order to see a lower low closer to the 200 day EMA. This Fridays labor report will be critical. This time, bad news won't be good news,unless its catastrophically bad enough to warrant a reversal in QE. And I don't think it will be that bad. Actually with State and Local Govt's now hiring again, we could see a slightly better than expected number.

    So I'm guessing (betting) that we will see a lower low closer to the 200 Day EMA...near 1700 on the S&P sometime in the next 5-8 trading days.
    Am also on the lookout for better news/numbers (starting with Fridays Jobs Report) that could trigger a buyback reversal.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  7. #184

    Join Date
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    11,563

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Wow, we'll said and documented.
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  9. #185

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Breath in, let it out.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  11. #186

    Join Date
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    Question Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Excellent post FWM, I may have lots of data to post, but it doesn't mean anything if it can't be articulated into a viable position. That was a great view of the big picture.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #187

    Join Date
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    821

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    FWM

    Very well said. i read your posts all the time since they are thorough and easy to understand.what you said along with the chart tom has been posting has me concerned and for the first time in a long time im considering moving to G fund. over the past few years we have seen some tremendous things happen in this world and the market has fallen slightly on these events but came right back and then some. im basically a buy and hold so i do have reservations on moving to G. But since I'm only 3 months from retirement i may move to secure what i have to play another day. i appreciate all on this forum for their effort and knowledge and willingness to share what they know. i thank you and the MB. john

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  15. #188

    Join Date
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    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    24,244

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    FWM,

    You forgot to mention option number 3 - tapering the taper holding at $65 billion for a few months for clarity. Janet is a dove and probably won't mind slowing down a bit - why rush.

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  17. Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Interesting where your emotions are. Mine are only at Anxiety. That said I have been selling the the highs through out Jan and am down to 15% in S Fund and the rest in the G fund. I may have lost 2% from the high.

    I'm not concerned about the missing the next big climb because I think it will happen fast... but I don't see a new high for months... so I'm avoiding risk to the down side.

    I see us hitting the right shoulder and I'll sell and be 80% cash across all accounts TSP and IRAs.

    Something I heard on CNBC the other day was interesting about much of the selling was due to stocks reaching 1 year and becoming LT gains that were being sold to avoid the high ST gain taxes for less than a year. THat would mean there will be much more investments that will become LT as time goes by that investors will cash in. My own conspiracy theory or opinion is there is a sweet spot somewhere in between the 39% tax rate and the 15% tax rate and the risk of a falling market that will make the the super rich do something we are not counting on.

    So I'm staying risk adverse... I'll reevaluate daily looking for a chance to get back in, but it will be lower unless we get a lift past the shoulder (1815 S&P). When you take a step back and look at the market compared to all the other crashes (and I'm not expecting a crash)... I say we have hit a high and gains over time will be small to stay on the overall high slope.

    I think this my first post on TSPTalk ever.


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  19. #190

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by GUCHI View Post
    FWM

    Very well said. i read your posts all the time since they are thorough and easy to understand.what you said along with the chart tom has been posting has me concerned and for the first time in a long time im considering moving to G fund. over the past few years we have seen some tremendous things happen in this world and the market has fallen slightly on these events but came right back and then some. im basically a buy and hold so i do have reservations on moving to G. But since I'm only 3 months from retirement i may move to secure what i have to play another day. i appreciate all on this forum for their effort and knowledge and willingness to share what they know. i thank you and the MB. john
    Thanks...good luck in your retirement!
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #191

    Join Date
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    24,244

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    imoritz89,

    Chances are money is just rotating around going into other equities and that provides demand which translates to higher prices. There is also the possibility that the secular bear ended with the 21% decline back in October 2011 and that means we have been in a new secular bull for only 2/1/2 years. We could be looking forward to another three years of cyclical rampant bull moves. Of course we are feeling the pressure of the 40 year Kress cycle right now and when it ends we are headed back up. Don't stay out too long.

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  23. #192

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I keep looking at your chart and I keep looking at your chart. Doesn't it seem like the next peak comes after the 20 touches and bounces off the 50 EMA. Isn't that where we are right now. Do you think more confirmation of down side is needed? This is weird for me asking about the other side of the coin. Look at September.
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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