Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

regarding the S Fund since I jumped in....So far, sooooo flat!

Merry Christmas everyone.

Santa must be close because the wine is low and the back is aching.

My New Years wish is that we all earn 30%+ in 2014. Stay safe, happy, and healthy.

A few thoughts as we start a new year...

Tom was right that the first trading day can be a big number, either up or down.

I joined the federal work force in early 1993 and I don't think I got into the TSP until late that year or 1994. Back then I think we had to mail in IFTs using a form. I was pretty ignorant concerning investing and I don't think I spent too much time exclusively in the C Fund, which was likely the best fund for several years up through 1999. I remember comparing statements with other coworkers my age and we were very excited about earning more than 30% per year on a few of those years, and reading the statement that said something like "At this rate your account will be worth $2,000,000 (or whatever 7 figure number they gave) if you retire at age XX". So we all assumed it was a given! ha!

But 2013 was like those mid 90s years in that if you had thrown your whole balance and contributions into one of the stock funds and never gave it a second thought or look you more than doubled what I did in 2013 while working on it diligently. 16 people stuck with the S Fund the entire year, and probably not all of them watched the market closely. Only 1 person, remark, was able to outperform the S Fund, and only by a small amount. Obviously, not all years are like this, but I think they do outnumber years like 2008, 2002, and 2001.

Most of us don't come here to buy and hold, but the years between recessions, and immediately before the next recession, can be awfully good and you better have a real solid reason to be out of the market in these years. This is more of a note to myself, because I continuously lost ground by "being smart" and stepping aside several times in 2013. We'll see how well I follow this advice in 2014.

A big thank you goes to Tom and all of the contributors on this site. I've improved a lot since my first year here in 2010, and a lot of credit goes to the knowledge I've gained here. (In 2010 a few mistakes made my AT number worse than in real life, but it was still real bad)

2013 +16.40% 503rd out of 1324
2012 +6.71% 627th out of 1317
2011 -2.94% 627th out of 1035
2010 -14.11% 605th out of 607

Well, with any dip that I don't act on ahead of time I have regrets. The market's been flat since the last day of 2013 and that resistance line in the upper 1840s was tested 4 times and not successfully broken through. I could've seen this and acted, but now I'll just stick with it for the return. This will be a test of my theory that a dip during QE only reaches 3-5%. We'll see. I may try to exit on a dead cat bounce and re-enter 1-3 days later, just to be ahead of the S Fund. But, currently this is only a 3% dip and lots of times this isn't enough to even have a dead cat bounce...a bit more downside would make this a more notable 1-2 week trough and we'd likely see a dead cat bounce this coming week.

I'm in the S Fund and no way will I get out at this point. The world isn't falling apart and I suspect news will be a mix of pos and neg so it's just a matter of shaking out the weak hands now. In cases like this the plunge lasts about 2-4 days, followed by the sucker rally - sell there to step aside briefly - then another 2-5 days at slightly lower lows.

just my opinion

The Fed meets tomorrow and Wed. Will Wed be the day we find out how closely Yellen thinks like Ben, or will Ben still run the show? Yellen has been called a dove, like Ben, and in light of lots of recent Econ news I think further tapering is out of the question.

Remember, however, that Ben left the door open for increasing QE.

A neck-snapping reversal...we've seen these before. Sometimes there isn't even time for a sucker rally and subsequent lower lows. If you jumped out today at least you are jumping out at a better level, but there's a good chance we now go up up and away.

The give back at the end was interesting. Was it a leak on AAPL? Anyway, the S&P didn't drop to the lows of the day, but today does count as a down day. Tomorrow will tell us a lot.

The market hasn't performed like I had hoped, and as of yesterday I was down almost 7% since my peak not quite two weeks ago. I'm staying in the S Fund, despite the upcoming jobs # and debt ceiling issue. Hindsight is 20-20 and I would've liked to have seen the plateau a little better and step aside to skip all of this, but I missed it. The next mistake I typically would make in this situation would be to step aside at the bottom, so I am trying to avoid that.

In the long run I do believe there will be a point in the next few months where this dip is a distant memory and all of the stock funds are in the black. Staying the course for now.

Well, that didn't take too long. The C fund closed at a positive number for only the 2nd time all year, after being down 6% 3 weeks ago.

I'm in the S Fund, and staying put. There are three reasons why:

1) a lot of the time dips are separated by 2-3 months so if that holds it is too early

2) the sentiment among AT participants is quite bearish

3) the behavior of the market near this important resistance and S&P all-time high mark of ~1850 tells a lot. We spent plenty of time above that line today and it's my opinion that the resistance was weakened, and more damage will be done over the next few days. I believe we will soon see the S&P break above 1850 and ramp up from there over the next month or so based on the current behavior.

This Putin sale will not last long. If you are out of the market he is doing you a favor. I would have jumped in today if I had not already been 100% S Fund. We still may have a few more days this week to buy low, but this Ukraine event will be a distant memory in a week or two and the market will return to new highs. The reasons I gave a week ago still hold, and I think we have a month or so of upward movement once things settle down in the Ukraine.