Roger
Not the case.
You, my friendly PermaBull, are in a extremely unique situation that doesn't apply to TSP nor the markets in general. Since the mid 70s, you have been building a dividend based portfolio that is the envy of most. And if I understand correctly, you actually don't ever plan to use the money in your multi-million dollar account; but to pass it on to your heirs. A fine goal.
Though you are finely positioned to take the brunt of any bear market, you also tout immense bullishness to the extreme. Your situation my friend, is one that cannot be emulated in the TSP, nor in an account someone is just now starting UNLESS they are willing to take the brunt of a bear market... most are not.
Your wealth amassed over 4 decades, so don't let anyone believe that your situation is a new undertaking. Your wealth is also based on margin, which also is not available in the TSP and is something people can lose their life savings on if done incorrectly. You have protected yourself, good.
I am neither bull nor bear, though because of my cost of living and what I see happening to our beloved country, I am worried. Probably more cautious than I should be... but I am not a long term investor like you. I will have to use my account in about 15 years to live on. want to keep myself from taking a huge hit when the market goes down. I also want to be able to gain while the market is going up, which I believe you call "timing the market" and you also believe it is a fools errand.
Being constantly bullish is a fine goal, as you have proven over the years. You also make all your recent gains claims (about 109% I think) from the bottom of the market in 2009. Would you dare compare that gain to what the gain would have been based on your account value Oct 2007? or say Mar 2000? Peak to peak to peak your gains are only those from dividends (and any possible unrealized gains from stock value - which you don't plan to sell), which I am sure are mighty. I am sure your gains from the mid 70s to 2000 were great since the S&P 500 started in the high 60s (I think around 68) and peaked in Mar 2000 at 1550 or so; a 2180% gain.
Any value of a portfolio is from start to finish. You had a great start and have no finish. Mine started in 2006, so I just got back to where I was in 2011 (was a buy and holder until then) and have made modest gains since then. I am sure there are many with stories very similar to mine.
I am convinced the only reason the market (don't confuse this with the economy) is this high is because of Fed intervention. I know, don't fight the fed, but are you ready with your beloved equity bubble pops (2016 maybe 2017)? Will your sacrificial lamb account cover you if you had a margin call throughout a 1-2 year bear market?
I also believe that we are victims of the large institutions. The retail investor cannot manipulate the market with their measly purchases and sells. Conspiracy theory or not, it is hard not to see the manipulation of the market.
Well, I guess I needed to get that off my chest... Almost sounds like a manifesto
I mean no disrespect, I just wanted to clarify some things. I think you and I have this conversation about every 6 months...
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