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Thread: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

  1. #349

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    Sep 2007
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    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    I love LMBF.... my TSP account balance is just amazing.

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  3. #350

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    For the month of December, the "I" fund did it again, with a return of 4.02%- meaning we leave the money in the "I" fund for another month again.

    12-31-2012.JPG

    Best of luck in 2013.

    P.S.- if you are using the LMBF method, and are making lots of dough, please remember to tip the doorman when you retire. I could use it.

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  5. #351

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    Ashland, KY
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    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    Yeah I gotta say this LMBF is best thing I have ever seen, if you stay patient and keep emotions out of it, it seems to work very well! And James if your ever around Northeastern KY theres definetly a beer or 12 waiting on ya.


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  7. #352

    Join Date
    Oct 2010
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    Aiea, Hawaii
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    1,122

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    For the month of December, the "I" fund did it again, with a return of 4.02%- meaning we leave the money in the "I" fund for another month again.

    12-31-2012.JPG

    Best of luck in 2013.

    P.S.- if you are using the LMBF method, and are making lots of dough, please remember to tip the doorman when you retire. I could use it.

    Hey, James, this method seems pretty good! I notice that 2011 also returned +12% !! And that was a pretty tough year.

    What do you think of making a good thing even better?! Since we get 2 IFTs a month, maybe shift funds at the beginning and MIDDLE of the month(?). This would respond quicker to possible market changes....just wonderin'.
    There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who know binary, and those that don't!!
    Retired on December 31, 2018!!

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  9. #353

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    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    Quote Originally Posted by uscfanhawaii View Post
    Hey, James, this method seems pretty good! I notice that 2011 also returned +12% !! And that was a pretty tough year.

    What do you think of making a good thing even better?! Since we get 2 IFTs a month, maybe shift funds at the beginning and MIDDLE of the month(?). This would respond quicker to possible market changes....just wonderin'.

    Nope. I am not changing a thing-

    It is what it is.

    If you want to try something else- by all means, feel free to start your own system and start to track it in your own thread. I'd be happy if your system did better than this one....but for now, i'll keep this one just as it is. It seems to be doing o.k..

    For the record, "McDuck" turned me on to this system a while back. I doubted, but decided to start tracking it to see how it actually did. I am glad I did because it has helped me think about the market in a whole 'nother dimension, and my own luck has been better as a result.

    Good luck.

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  11. #354

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    Quote Originally Posted by ILoveTDs View Post
    Not a problem. After that post I did a couple "LMBF seasonal" and found that moving to the F Fund from 1 May to 1 Nov and doing LMBF the rest of the year out performed LMBF since 2003 (when we have share price data) by quite a bit. I'll look up the number tomorrow if I remember.
    Year LMBF May - Oct
    2003 19.59% 2.82%
    2004 13.00% 16.95%
    2005 2.38% -5.98%
    2006 7.07% 16.68%
    2007 10.97% 5.32%
    2008 -11.06% 1.68%
    2009 9.66% -0.51%
    2010 13.06% 30.51%
    2011 11.64% 22.19%
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  13. #355

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
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    1,823

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    I think out of all the TSP strategies, this one's the most intriguing. it seems like it's too simple to work, but sometimes simple is best

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  15. #356

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    From your figures it looks like "LMBF seasonal" came out ahead in: 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011
    while LMBF came out ahead in: 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009.

    This seams to be pretty much a draw if you ask me. I can't say one is really better than the other.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  17. Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    I just joined Friday. Can somebody tell me what the LMBF method is?

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  19. #358

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    You can read the first post about the LMBF strategy at the beginning of this thread here.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #359

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    It's a simple Fund allocation strategy based on what did well last month. At the end of each month the monthly average is computed for the 5 Funds (G,F,C,S,I). The winner is choosen for next month and an IFT is made into that Fund (if it changed) before noon of the first day of the month. There will always be a 1 day lag between the monthly average and our allocation.

    It's simple in that you only need to look at your TSP once a month to make an potential change. It is suposed to be suprizingly successful, but I'm just starting to look into it so I can't say much about that.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  23. #360

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
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    Posts
    1,823

    Default Re: Last month's best fund method

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    It's a simple Fund allocation strategy based on what did well last month. At the end of each month the monthly average is computed for the 5 Funds (G,F,C,S,I). The winner is choosen for next month and an IFT is made into that Fund (if it changed) before noon of the first day of the month. There will always be a 1 day lag between the monthly average and our allocation.

    It's simple in that you only need to look at your TSP once a month to make an potential change. It is suposed to be suprizingly successful, but I'm just starting to look into it so I can't say much about that.
    It looks like it's been successful for a while, and especially avoids some big losses in down years. probably won't win as much in good years as holding S/I funds, but you also won't get smashed if another 2008 happens by holding a losing fund too long.

    but with that said, it's yearly returns for the most part look pretty nice and you'll end up winning in the long term with it. Percentages in parentheses are the C, S, and I funds respectively. From 2001-2007 alone, following this system would have doubled your balance

    2001 5.16% (-11.94%, -9.04%, -21.94%)
    2002 3.60% (-22.05%, -18.14%, -15.98%)
    2003 34.22% (28.54%, 42.92%, 37.94%)
    2004 14.86% (10.82%, 18.03%, 20.00%)
    2005 5.92% (4.96%, 10.45%, 13.63%)
    2006 8.18% (15.79%, 15.30%, 26.32%)
    2007 13.31% (5.54%, 5.49%, 11.43%)
    2008 -11.6% (-36.99%, -38.32%, -42.43%)
    2009 16.04% (26.68%, 34.85%, 30.04%)
    2010 17.17% (15.06%, 29.06%, 7.94%)
    2011 12.22% (2.11%, -3.38%, -11.81%)
    2012 19.27% (16.07%, 18.57%, 18.62%)
    Last edited by sniper; 01-07-2013 at 04:37 PM.


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