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Thread: EbbChart Primer (Public Thread)

  1. #25

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    Quote Originally Posted by law87 View Post
    Your system is a little difficult for me to comprehend, can you explain it a little bit?

    Also you showing long TNA as of today :?
    Law87, the charts could be a little overwhelming at first, but all it does is keep track of the patterns' performances daily. Only one pattern (8 in all) shows up on the ebbchart each day, so you can understand the charts by simply comparing the changes made today from yesterday.

    I learned to use the ebbchart's triple patterns to guide the TSP system. I also take into consideration the daily patterns laid out on the ebbchart. The patterns are given ahead of time -- one to two weeks ahead of time -- making decisions to move a lot easier.

    As of yesterday, TNA using the ebbchart signals has a winning percentage of 57% (TNA at 48%). Non-subscribers will have to wait for the TNA update tonight to find out its position. Signals are provided in advance only to current ebbcharters (or is it ebbchartists).

    -- ebb

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  3. #26

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    I've just updated the TNA chart and happy to report that the winning streak continues. It stands at 7 now, 3 more and we'll equal the longest one we've had back in Jan. 04-18. A couple of weeks ago, the TNA system was down -14.38% for the month, today it's up 18.76%.

    Winning Percentage: 59%. Total Gain: +22.89%.

    Anyone here following the ebbchart signals for TNA?

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  5. #27

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    The TNA chart has been updated (click on signature below). The system was short TNA today (+1.70%), so the winning streak continues (currently stands at 8). Sometimes I get to thinking that maybe reality bends just to meet the ebbchart's expectations. Okay, time to cut down on the sci-fi movies.

    Winning percentage: 36 W, 24 L (60% vs. 48% for the buy and beholders).
    Short signals: 19 W, 12 L (61%).
    Buy signals: 17 W, 12 L (59%).


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  7. #28

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    I just discovered the links on my signature not working properly. I forgot Tom made a change to this thread's name. All fixed.

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  9. #29

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    Before doing the triple patterns' timeline, I believed that it was better to use only the major patterns for entry (5-5-5 or 8-8-8) and exit (1-1-1 or 7-7-7). But, as the chart below shows, every triple pattern can and should be used. Even the first bearish green pattern 1-1-1 turned out to be right -- 100% F-fund produced gains, while a 50% S, 50% I-fund move would have resulted in losses. Another benefit is the bigger gains attained.


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  11. #30

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    TNA (-0.87%) didn't cooperate with the ebbchart's buy signal last Friday. I was really looking forward to having a couple of 10-baggers this year. Instead, we had to settle for a 9-day (MAR 19-29) and a 10-day win streak (JAN 04-18). Getting 10 right calls in a row is no walk in the park. Flipping a coin 10 times, and guessing the right outcome in all 10 will have an odds of 1 in 1024 (.5 ^ 10). The ebbchart's mechanical calling system was started back in May of last year. So, to put it in perspective, we've only had less than a year's worth of guesses to accomplish something that should take 3-5 years. Lucky to be ahead of the curve, I say.

    YTD win percentage: 37 W, 25 L (60% vs 47% for buy and beholders).
    Short signals: 20 W, 12 L (63%).
    Buy signals: 17 W, 13 L (57%).
    Gain: +25.12% (vs. +39.16% for the buy and hold crowd).

    The ebbchart signals have increased the winning edge to 12% (60% vs. 47%) and it's also closing in on the gains category (+25.12% vs. +39.16%).
    Last edited by ebbnflow; 04-02-2012 at 12:56 AM.

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  13. #31

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    After watching the movie "Moneyball," it dawned on me that we're probably using the sabermetrics approach to market timing through the ebbcharts. Sabermetrics or evidence-based stats are now employed in all of baseball. It all comes down to the percentages and the edge we can get out of it.

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  15. #32

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    This is a comparison chart on how the triple patterns did (2007-2012) vs. the flip side of the trade. All twelve patterns end up making the right call.

    Bearish green patterns.

    Pattern 1-1-1: 100% F (gain +0.80%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -0.42%).
    Pattern 4-4-4-4: 100% F (gain +2.27%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -10.01%).
    Pattern 4-4-4: 100% F (loss -0.82%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -1.49%).
    Pattern 7-7-7: 100% F (loss -0.08%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -2.96%).
    Pattern 2-2-2: 100% F (loss -0.66%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -34.22%).
    Pattern 7-7-7: 100% F (gain +5.71%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -0.66%).
    Pattern 2-2-2: 100% F (gain +4.24%) vs. 50% S, 50% I (loss -19.18%).

    Bullish red patterns.

    Pattern 6-6-6: 50% S, 50% I (gain +4.59%) vs. 100% F (gain +4.40%).
    Pattern 5-5-5: 50% S, 50% I (gain +31.99%) vs. 100% F (gain +11.09%).
    Pattern 5-5-5: 50% S, 50% I (gain +26.97%) vs. 100% F (gain +4.70%).
    Pattern 3-3-3-3: 50% S, 50% I (gain +12.39%) vs. 100% F (loss -1.21%).
    Pattern 8-8-8: 50% S, 50% I (gain +8.75%) vs. 100% F (gain +2.03%).
    Pattern x-x-x: (still up in the air).



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  17. #33

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    We can also observe in the chart below that between 2007-2008, seven different triple/quadruple patterns made appearances. But, right after the market crash bottom (March 09, 2009), guess what triple pattern came out of hiding? It's none other than the ebbchart's most bullish contrarian pattern -- pattern 5 (red-red-red). Amazingly, no other triple pattern tried to interfere during its two-year reign (Apr. 20, 2009 - Jun. 09, 2011). To top it off, bullish red pattern 5-5-5 showed itself not once but twice to drive the point home that we're in a bull run. A real bull run -- unmitigated and uncontested.


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  19. #34

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    They say not to hold the exchange-traded fund TNA for a long period of time because it's meant to be traded. Now, I'm thinking it only applies if your system doesn't know where the market is headed. I am assuming that TNA began in Nov. 19, 2008 -- i can't get more data beyond this. In light of this discovery, I would abandon timing TNA using the daily ebbchart signals and just go with the flow of the triple patterns. Imagine, four trades in less than four years and a gain of +837%. The chart below shows TNA using the triple patterns.


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  21. #35

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    Speaking of triple patterns, what are the odds of one turning up on the ebbchart? Normally, a number (1-8) showing up three times in a row would be: (1/8 or .125) x (.125) x (.125) = .001953125 or 1/512.

    But because it doesn't matter what number comes up first (1-8), we only need to multiply it two times to get the odds: (.125) x (.125) = .015625 or 1/64.

    I started the ebbchart back in Jan. 16, 2007, so that gives us about 5 years and 4 months. There are about 252 trading days in a year or 21 per month: (252 x 5) + (21 x 4) = 1344. 1344/64 = 21.

    According to these calculations, we should expect at least one triple pattern every 64 trading days, or 21 triple patterns by now. Close enough, we actually have 13 valid wave patterns and 3 null wave patterns for a total of 16 triple pattern occurrences. The most triple pattern we've had in a year was 5 back in 2008 and the least was one in 2009. That said, triple patterns don't occur randomly -- all four valid triple patterns that showed up in 2008 were bearish green patterns and the only one appearing in 2009 after the market crash bottom was a bullish red pattern.

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  23. #36

    Default Re: EbbChart Primer

    Triple-pattern strategy: Plenty of triple patterns (14), but using only six moves in less than six years. Here are the moves:

    1st move: (100% F) Bearish pattern 1-1-1 (+0.80%). Total gain: +0.80%.
    2nd move: (50% S, 50% I) Bullish pattern 6-6-6 (+4.59%). Total gain: +4.59%.
    3rd move: (100% F) Bearish patterns 4-4-4-4 (+2.27%); 4-4-4 (-0.82%); 7-7-7 (-0.08%); 2-2-2 (-0.66%); 7-7-7 (+5.71%). Total gain: +6.42%.
    4th move: (50% S, 50% I) Bullish patterns 5-5-5 (+31.99%); 5-5-5 (+26.97%). Total gain: +67.70%.
    5th move: (100% F) 2-2-2 (+4.24%). Total gain: +4.24%.
    6th move: (50% S, 50% I) Bullish patterns 3-3-3-3 (+12.39%); 8-8-8 (+8.75%) vs. 100% F (+2.03%); 3-3-3 (-8.04%); 8-8-8 (+4.96%). Total gain: +18.00%.

    All six moves resulted in gains -- even during the market crash of 2008. I won't say if we have a new triple pattern (as of this writing) in deference to current subscribers, but six moves??? That's the power of cycles at work -- without it, everything is just a crapshoot.



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