TSP | Thrift Savings Plan - Talk

Intrepid_ Timer's 2011 Year End Report

First of all, I would like to thank all of you for signing up for my service this year and for sticking with it. It has been a very trying year at times, but the experience I've gained in my first year of doing this will only help to improve my service in the future. It's hard to imagine that the S fund “only” lost 3.38% last year in a year that included a virtually flat December and six negative months. If not for a rare double digit up month in October, things could have been a lot worse.

Some of you may recall me mentioning in the very beginning that backtested data does not take into two extremely important factors, human emotion and human error. This year I made two minor errors and one major emotional mistake.

The first error occurred in February when I misread a buy signal and ended up buying into equities four days late. This error would have caused me to miss out on a 1.46% gain in the S fund, but I used the I fund that month so I only missed out on 0.19% with that fund. The second error occurred in September when I entered some data wrong and ended up selling a day later than I should have. This error caused me to lose 1.86% on that particular S fund trade instead of only losing 0.40% like I should have. (The S fund lost 10.73% that month so it wasn't really as bad it looks.)

The major emotional mistake I made in 2011 occurred in mid-May when I decided to make some modifications to my Timer system. At the time, I was lagging behind the equities markets for the year and as a first year premium service, the pressure to perform well was huge. Because we were in the midst of a pretty strong bull rally, I decided to take out five of the more volatile short term indicators in my Timer system so that it would remain in trades for longer periods of time. This turned out to be quite costly when the big pullback in the markets occurred in August. Although it did get me out of equities prior to the initial down turn in July, it got me back into them too early and for too long in August.

The third weekend of August I decided to go back to my original Timer system as it's first buy signal for equities in August had produced a very nice return, in fact, it's signals for 2 of the 3 months that I used that modified system had performed better (July's signals were identical). It just so happened that the following Monday, my original Timer system issued it's second buy signal of the month and I used this signal to regain quite a bit of what I had lost in August. From that point to the end of the year, my original Timer system helped me to gain 20.21% while the S fund gained 12.55% and the S&P 500 gained 11.92% during the same time period.

I have since installed a couple of things to help alleviate any future human errors and emotional mistakes. I am now training a young apprentice on the intricacies of my Timer system and this will help to make sure I don't misread any future signals and will also be beneficial if anything were to ever happen to me as he will be able to continue my service using my system. I also have my fiancée checking my data on a daily basis to make sure all entries are correct.

Even though I WILL NOT be making any future changes to my Timer system, I have instructed both of the above to continuously, and with as much force as needed, kick me in the tuchus until it releases it's grasp on my head if I ever do attempt to change it.

As you can see above, although my Timer system MAY fall behind the equities markets in general during very bullish periods, this isn't necessarily so and it is quite good at navigating the markets during increased volatility. 

Despite the troubles I had this summer while using that modified system for trading the equity funds, both systems together produced 11 buy signals for the F fund and 9 of them were profitable (82%) for a total gain of 4.44%. This shows that with a good trading system, the F fund can be quite a useful tool when used as a supplement to the equity funds instead of the G fund.

All that being said, the bottom line is that my return for 2011 was 8.37% and this beat all the funds in TSP. Since finishing the development of my Timer system in the spring of 2010, I have now beaten each fund  on a year-to-year basis for the second year in a row. I am also the only person on TSPtalk that can say that.

Most market timing services and/or fund managers would be perfectly happy with this return, especially since most fund managers lost money this past year, and might even raise their fees for the coming year because of it. Personally, I feel that 8.37% is beneath my standards, especially knowing that my Timer system (the unmodified one) returned 27.15% for the whole year.

Since I made that mistake in mid-May and used a modified system for three months this year, which really hurt my return, I have decided to knock three months off of annual subscriptions  and only charge $150 instead of $200. However, I am keeping the limit on these annual subscriptions pretty low so as to protect the integrity of my service.  Since my signals don't come till around 11:20-11:30am ET, I don't want to risk bogging down the servers at TSP with too many people trying to make IFTs in a short period of time. Once this limit is met, one can still sign up for a monthly subscription, until that limit is also met. I'm keeping the price of a monthly subscription at $20 because subscribers are free to cancel these at any time and if there starts to be a problem with people getting their IFTs in, the monthly subscriptions will be the first ones that I cut back even further. I may even have to cancel that part of my service if it becomes too much of an issue.

As I've said before, I'm not looking to get rich with this service as I will accomplish that with my own retirement accounts. It does however afford me the opportunity to not keep making withdrawals from them for day to day expenses, and paying the 10% penalty, because I am only 48 years young. Since I quit the government two years ago to focus on my investments and no longer have a “real” job, your  subscription fees allow me to scan the internet and post pertinent information in my daily commentaries and not have to worry about the steep taxes and penalties that I would be paying just to get money out of my retirement accounts for daily expenses. In this regard, we are helping each other.

If you are not a current subscriber, you can find a sample of my morning commentaries at this link to give you an idea of what they look like:  http://www.tsptalk.com/samples/intrepid.html

It was recently updated with a more current commentary from December 2011 so you may have to hit “CTRL” and “F5” at the same time in order to update your page.

In my daily commentaries, I talk quite a bit about different trading techniques and technical analysis to include, but not limited to, trend charts, Fibonacci retracement levels, candlestick pattern charts, volumes, volatility, parabolic SAR and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). I try to keep things simple so the novice investor will understand, but also present some things in a different light that even more sophisticated traders might not have thought about before.

Besides my commentaries, you will also get all my Timer system's buy and sell signals. It typically gives two buy signals per month and although I always go with the first one, both for simplicity reasons and because it has proven to be the best one to use over an average yearly time frame basis, others will sometimes wait for the second signal based on what information I might present in my commentaries or from other outside sources. Although I finished 2011 in the top 100 on the AutoTracker, there were also 20 subscribers of my service that finished in the top 75 and 13 that finished in the top 50. I can only assume that my service was able to help them in some way. (Quite a few subscribers don't actually post on the tracker and just use their PIP scores from TSP to figure out their yearly returns.)

In addition to the above, you'll also be given access to my premium threads on TSPtalk and in one of these threads, I post a daily signal update, whether there is a signal change or not, at around 11:20 am ET. There is also an account talk thread where myself and other subscribers discuss my system's current signal as well as other pertinent information to our investing needs. It's quite a popular place! Last, but not least, there is another thread that you can post grievances or questions when my system might have a bad trade. Thankfully, this one isn't so popular. :)

Below are a few of the testimonials and/or comments that I have received from subscribers who have used my service over the past year. They will give you an idea of how my service has helped them this year. I have taken their nicknames off to protect their privacy.

I would like to wish everyone a very Happy and Prosperous New Year!!!

Mike (Intrepid_Timer)

PS- I made  this special price for annual subscriptions available to current monthly subscribers about a week ago and a large number have taken advantage of it. My annual subscription limit is right about 3/4's met as this time. If the limit is hit before you are able to sign up, there are still more monthly subscriptions available because of current subscribers moving from monthly to yearly. Again, once the monthly subscription limit is met, I will not be accepting any new subscriptions. At some point in the future, I may raise these limits a little bit if everything is running smoothly.

Also, there are occasions when a subscriber will miss a signal. Besides my system being one that looks for weekly trades in the markets and not 1-2 day trades, one of the beauties of my system is that it typically gives two buy signals per month, so if the markets jump up big the day after the first signal and someone missed the first signal, they can always wait for the second buy signal later in the month. Since timing the exact top and bottom of any particular period is extremely difficult, being a day late has actually proven beneficial at times. This is not something I would recommend on a regular basis though. My timing system gives traders options and most systems don't do that.

TESTIMONIALS

 “I just renewed my subscription to your service. I enjoy your daily commentary. I found it beneficial in understanding the markets as well as profitable. The previous two years I subscribed to a service that was too focused on capital preservation and didn't earn much better than the G fund. This was irritating when both the C and S fund returned over 20% in those years. Keep up the good work!”
 

“Mike, Just wanted to say thanks for your insight and guidance this past (shaky) year. My PIP for October was 15.96% and this past month was 15.66%. I feel secure with my future by reading your daily thoughts and comments and responding to them accordingly. I am a believer in your methods. I wish everyone was as smart as me and sign up for your services!”
 

“Hi Mike, I just submitted my renewal for another year. I hope it goes through ok. Just as a side note, I was checking my records and discovered that I actually joined you the very end of January. Adjusting for my year from Feb 1st to today, my TSP is up 21.50%. That's pretty close to what the TSP page gives me for a 12 month gain of 21.57%. I had thought I joined you in March, but now that I see it was February, you get more credit for my gains than I was giving you! LOL Worry not, I've told my wife that was the best $200 we've ever spent on 'money' or 'stock market' programs, newsletters, etc. So I just wanted to say "THANK YOU!" one more time and a very Happy New Year! May we continue on and make 2012 even better! Thanks again!”
 

“Hi Mike. Joined your service early 2011 and just wanted to say thanks for the advice and candor in your commentary over the last year. I joined, giving your system a year, to see how it performed next to the riskier L funds (2040/2050). As you know, it has out performed those funds with much less risk to my family's retirement even when I wasn't available to make trades the day of every alert (I am a Forester/Fire Fighter and am not always in the office at 0830 PT). I just renewed for 2012 and have started using your signals to help make decisions for some of my stock and ETF trades. Not quite ready to buy short positions, yet...but may do so in the future. I know your busy watching signals and I don't need a response, but did want to pass on my appreciation.”
 

“I just canceled my recurring payment through paypal and signed up for the 150.00 thru my credit card. I am very pleased with your service and look forward to a prosperous new year. Thanks for being there”
 

“Intrepid, First off, thank you for the price break for next year. I wanted to Thank you for the information you provided this last year. I must say I got discouraged with your system when you made the changes. I also tried to make my own calls and took a 20% nose dive in July and August. Thanks to you and me learning the virtues of patience, I managed to only loose about 2% of my own money this year. This next year I am planning on following you to the letter. So I'm hoping the Intrepid_Timer will do us both justice.”
 

“Hello IT, I was about to cancel my monthly service on January 3rd and join for the next year. Your offer is very generous and appreciated. I have read your postings for a few weeks now and have taken your sell advice and just recently, your buy alert advice. This single IFT paid for you service fee 10 times over. My buy and hold approach this year really cost me a lot, I needed a way to get through the trees and gain a better perspective.”
 

“Well it is my chance to wish every one a Happy New Year! Hopefully 2012 will gives us better trading days! We have had a couple two or three rough trading months and it made me wonder if I was doing to right thing with my funds. But things turned around for us for the fall-winter months. I followed Mike's trades to the letter only making one or two small mistakes. I am happy to report that I have added an additional 9.3% more to my funds following Mike's advice. I am retired now so I am not sure how long I will stick on this program but I did sign up for another year. If I can do what I want next year I might keep the bulk of my money in TSP and follow the trades another year. Thanks Mike! $$$$$$$$”
 

“I could just kick my self as I missed the last 2 signals and that cost me a lot. So my New Year's resolution is to not assume there will be no signal change and to check everyday at 730 Alaska time....no excuse... I have a smartphone now so no reason to be left behind!!!”
 

“I joined the Intrepid Timer service in late spring. I realized that I did not have time to keep up with the market and study the charts and news on a daily basis. I needed help. At the time I joined, I trailed IT by about 3 percent. I finished the year with a return of about 18.44 percent. Now, obviously, I did not follow all of IT's moves. The thing I like about IT's system is that it reduces volatility because the majority of the time one is sitting in the relative safety of the F or G fund. I was in the stock market (CSI) about 33 percent of the time and IT was in about 40 percent of the time. The difference in performance between IT and myself can be mostly attributed to two events. The first event was when IT switched systems and I did not feel comfortable at all with that. So I sat out and watched from the sidelines. That sudden change in systems caught me off-guard and I wondered how often system changes would take place. I also wondered how emotional does IT get. I don't want Mike to be emotional, more like a robot. Sorry to sound so cold. This is why you will not see me going rah rah when the system is doing well or ranting and raving when there is an off month. The second event was in December when everything was pointing to a Santa Claus rally and I got in several days before IT and got out a day earlier than IT. Call it luck or whatever. It worked and that is all that matters now. I like the daily commentary. It has been a wonderful learning experience. I read it everyday and many times I pick stuff up that I would have totally missed. What I like best about Mike is his commitment to his clients and the confidence that he exudes. The confidence that Mike shows in the system can not be overstated. This is good for my overall health, less worry, less stress. After all, that is what I pay him for. I have added an additional year at the discount rate and look forward to 2012. Congratulations Mike on having a good year. Happy New Year everyone”
 

“IT, Haven't posted here in awhile, thought I'd swing by and wish you a healthy and prosperous New Year! I've been following your advice for a few years, last year my TSP fund was up 30%, this year I've been tardy and foolish on a few moves, I'm down 3+%. I'll try to be more in line in the coming year. That being said, I love your advice and this past summer I started following your advice on long/short positions (using FAS/FAZ). There I'm up about 70% since this summer. If not for some stupidity in October/November (when I was up over 100% in less than 5 months), I'd really be flying. You are the best! Bob”
 

“This is my second year with TSP and TSPtalk, which I quickly found and joined once I opened a retirement account. I_T, with your help, as well as analysis provided by Tom, Coolhand and others on the message board, I am very happy with where I am today. Also, very lucky to have stumbled upon this wealth of information and want to thank you all for your hard work. It's like handing a compass to novices like me before entering the woods. I intend to carry this compass with me in the years to come. Happy New Year!”
 

“I want to thank you Mike for your service and discount. I did the month to month last year and just did the year subscription which worked fine. Prior to following your system I knew nothing about the stock market or how to invest my TSP but after last year I learned a ton. Thanks again and Happy Holidays”
 

“Thanks for the Christmas present, Mike! $150 is a huge bargain. I think I made all of that and more just on Friday. Happy Holidays and thanks for all your hard work.”
 

“I went full year membership from the beginning and it has been worth every dime!! The guys in the office went with another TSP premium service not on TSPTalk and they are not happy. Thanks for growing my TSP!!”
 

“Merry Christmas I_T, and thanks for helping me grow my retirement account! I was a monthly subscriber, but I just signed up for the annual subscription. That discount was a much appreciated gift! I'm looking forward to next year. Thanks to you, I've learned more about the stock market in the last several months than all the prior years combined, and I've been trying to figure it out for quite a few years.”
 

“IT, I read today's comment and already had planned to stay with you next year. I know we had some unforeseen events take place this year (Japan tsunami, S&P downgrade in August) that hurt my gains. I was down -5.28% in August but should end the year near +4% or more. I plan to follow your signals a little closer next year, as I missed some for one reason or another(travel, golf etc). I erred in jumping to quick in early Dec. because I had to leave that morning or I could maybe finished the year over 6%. At 67 I would never put no more than 40% in equities, but since I signed on I feel more at ease and will go more into equities than I ever did. Thanks and Merry Christmas.”
 

“Hi Mike, First, I'd just like to say thanks for offering your system. I'm really looking forward to following it in 2012. Also, I'd like to commend you for the way you handled yourself on the message board during the difficult periods this year. I'm sure it wasn't easy and there were probably times when you regretted doing this. Thanks and best wishes for the new year!”

Okay, it was more than “a few”, but it wasn't all of them either. I think each one tells something important about each individual’s circumstance and may help you to decide if this service is right for you or not. Take care!