We are seeing signs of the possibility of a short term pullback.

I would really like to make a short term move because I think we may get some weakness.  We are seeing a major shift in sentiment from the odd-lot traders, the ones who are usually wrong.   Back at the end of July I wrote about the odd-lot traders and about how they were getting very pessimistic which was a sign we were due for a rally. (See July 29th comments).

Now they have turned very bullish.  This may indicate we may have a hard time moving up in the days ahead. 

       
                    Chart provided courtesy of  www.sentimentrader.com 

Oil came down again but this time the market just yawned.  It needs a rest.  The fact that I am behind the indices, really makes me want to take advantage of a possible pullback.  We've had a nice 40 point S&P 500 rally in just over a week and it wouldn't be a bad thing to pull back about half of that.  There are other signs as well such as the 10-day ARMS index and the overbought/oversold indicator jumping to overbought.

Here's what I will do:  Assuming the Dow isn't down big in the morning (over 100 points) I will move to a more conservative 40% G, 20% C, 20% S, 20% I fund allocation.  This will be effective Thursday.  I will stay 60% in stocks just in case.

That's all for today.  I'm still very bullish for the near future so this is just a short term move.  Currently 50% S, 50% I fund but as of Thursday I will be 40% G, 20% C, 20% S, 20% I fund.  See you tomorrow.  Don't forget to ask questions and share your ideas on the message board.