Market Comments July 1, 2009  Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

Yawn Stocks basically gave back Monday's gains yesterday after a weaker than expected Consumer Confidence report.  The TSP stock funds dropped 0.2% to 0.8%.  Volume was slightly higher than Monday's but it was still a pretty dull day despite the losses. The Consumer Confidence came it at 49.3 after estimates were looking for something over 55.0.  As I mentioned yesterday, the light volume trading could make things a little volatile when the economic reports come out this week, and so far that is what we've seen. Nothing really exciting to report for the S&P 500.  We did see an outside day as yesterday's high was higher than Monday's high, and yesterday's low was lower than Monday's low.  This can be considered a reversal pattern, but what would the S&P 500 be reversing?  It has been going sideways for several weeks now.                     Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk A quick check of the put/call ratios shows us that the two dumb money indicators, the CBOE and Equity put/call ratios, have been sliding off of their overly bullish sentiment readings, while the smart money is coming off of their overly bearish sentiment.                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Does this mean it is time to buy?  No.  This turn is just a start.  We are looking for them to move into extreme territories.  The dumb money will get more and more bearish as the market falls, while the smart money will position themselves in a more bullish position.  We'd like to see the CBOE ratio hit 1.20 or greater, the Equity ratio get to 0.90 or greater, and the OEX (smart money) move up to 0.80 or lower (high on the chart, lower in number).  I set up the TSP Talk Sentiment Survey today, a day early, because of the shortened holiday week.  That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!