Short-term question
mark - long-term positives
This has seemed to be my mantra for a couple of
years now an d once again we see uncertain
short-term conditions, but the action is looking
very positive for the longer-term.
Sentimentrader tells us that when the S&P does not
trade in negative territory at all for two straight
days leading up to an option expiration, as today
is, "it has had a tendency to end badly for those
pushing the long side." By the following Monday, the
S&P was negative 13 out of 18 times.
But the release of this week's AAII Investor
Sentiment Survey shows us that investors are still
"saying" they are bearish. 37% say they
are bullish while 44% say they are bearish.
Once again these are numbers seen near market
bottoms, not tops.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
Another survey taken
at lowrisk.com saw only 14% of those polled saying
they expected the Dow to be higher in 30 days.
According to Sentimentrader, that was the
sixth-lowest bullish reading in the decade-long
history of the survey. The ten weeks with the
fewest numbers of bulls led to choppy returns in the
short-term, but after three months, the Dow was
positive all 10 times.
Yesterday's higher than expected PPI report didn't
deter stocks but the bond market could not follow
through with its rally. Today we get the CPI
report and that can also be a market mover - usually
to the upside. But has a positive report
already been priced in?
Our
TSP Talk Sentiment Survey system is 100% S fund
this week and will remain there next week after this
week's neutral reading of 52% bulls to 30%
bears reading.
Because of these surveys, I strongly considered
making a move into the I fund yesterday (for today
and into next week) based on the survey.
However, the Ebbchart system is out of the market
today, and the TSP Trader System is looking for some
weakness in the short-term, so once again I remained
on the sidelines. Also, historically, post
options expiration week can be a little weaker than
normal.
The EbbChart System
is out of the market today but the active system is
making another transfer this morning. Ebbnflow added some return
results broken down by the different patterns the system generates.
Take a peak at the ebbchart page.
Trader Fred's
TSP
Trader System is out of the market this week.
Fred's commentary shows some short and long-term
charts today on the
system
page.
That's all I have for today. I am currently 100%
G fund. Have a great weekend!
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China Watch
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