Market Comments June 10, 2009  Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                            Printer  friendly

Leaders split Stocks and bonds rallied modestly yesterday with the I-fund leading the way after more weakness in the dollar.  The S&P 500 is still fighting the overhead resistance, but has remains resilient despite some obstacles.  Can the market leaders give us a clue as to where the S&P 500 might be heading?                 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The two leaders we have been following, the Nasdaq and the Dow Transports, are still telling different stories. The Nasdaq put in a very strong double bottom in March, is now trading above the 200-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is now above the 200-day moving average.  Volume has dried up during this last push higher, but overall, this is a very strong chart.                 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The Dow Transports are another story.  The double bottom failed convincingly in March so the trend remains down and it is still struggling with the 200-day moving average.                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk There is a bullish looking head and shoulders pattern forming, but we'd really need to see the  Transports get over 3500 to 3700 before a new ascending trend is made. Although the F-fund is up slightly in 2009, bonds have been getting beaten up pretty good this year.  Particularly the longer term bonds like the 30-year.  It has fallen sharply and is now at a support level needs to hold.  Bearish sentiment has been very high in bonds lately so I have been expecting a bounce, but the weakening dollar and fear of inflation has kept it down.  The long term trend may switch to down after many years in an uptrend, but we could still see an oversold bounce, particularly if stocks pull back. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  See you tomorrow!