Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

The comeback continues Stocks moved up nicely again on Tuesday, after an early sell-off.  After the bell, Cisco reported solid earnings but remained cautious looking forward. Despite oil closing over $121 a barrel, stocks overcame a slow start rallying on... I'm not really sure.  It could just be folks worrying about missing out by not being invested enough.  If feels a little frothy to me.  John Chambers of Cisco said conditions were still challenging and that a U.S. market recovery is not in sight.  "We're continuing to see our U.S. and some European customers remain cautious in their views about their own economies," he told analysts on a conference call The S&P 500 put in another outside day with a close in positive territory.  That's the second one in just the last couple of weeks and can be considered a technical positive going forward.                      Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com - with analysis by TSP Talk Last week's AAII Sentiment Survey came in at a ratio over 2 to 1, bulls (53%) to bears (26%), for the first time since the market peak in October.  That is a little concerning.                    Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com - with analysis by TSP Talk If instead of being at the start of a new bull market, we are just in a bear market rally, chances are we are near the top.  In early 2001 we saw a similar bear market rally that stalled near the 200-day moving average, and I am not really seeing any reason why this time is different - at least yet.                    Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com - with analysis by TSP Talk I'll quote something I read the other day from John Hussman of Hussman Funds:  He said, "Investors really have no sense of market dynamics if they believe that a recession-linked bear market comprises a single decline of less than 20% followed by a “V” shaped rebound into a new bull market. While I don't expect the market's losses to be nearly as severe as they were in the 2000-2002 bear market, the simple fact is that if the recent market low was indeed a final bear market trough, it occurred at the highest valuation level of any prior bear market trough in history." I don't want to take what one person says as gospel as you know what opinions are like... and if you look hard enough you'll find someone somewhere saying something that backs your own opinion.  But while watching those Saturday morning stock shows on Fox this weekend, it was difficult to find anyone who thought this market might be in a little trouble.  I may have heard one bear out of the dozen or more analysts that appeared on the shows.  Combine that with the new 2 to 1 AAII survey ratio, and I am not overly optimistic looking out a few weeks.  That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow! Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** By joining our email alert list you will receive an email each time we initiate a transfer or change our market outlook.  You may also receive an email each Monday morning reminding you that our comments are updated daily.  We will always send out these emails prior to making the transfer myself but we can not guarantee you will receive it in time to make a transferide to follow our transfers in your own account, you do so at your own risk.  There is always a possibility for a loss in your account.  These transfers could come very often and you may have to act quickly to make the deadline.  Please consider your investment strategy before taking any advice or making any transactions.  By reading the contents of TSP Talk.com and accepting the email alerts, you must agree to the Terms of Service.  Thank you. TSP Talk