Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Flat Friday The bad news is, the jobs report came in worse than expected, an 80,000 loss versus the 50,000 loss estimate.  There were also lowered revisions made to prior months.  The good news is, the market hung in there despite the negative economic data.  I don't really like the current stalling action this recent rally is showing.  The resistance is holding and we have seen this "topping" pattern before (see circled tops.)  Looking at the peaks of the S&P since October, they have tended to be quick reversals down, where as the flattening tops before October were pauses, then drops, but each of the "flat top" sell-offs before October saw an eventual higher high.  The current market is certainly in a whole new environment than it was back in the summer of 2007, so this is more of an observation than a prediction of anything to come.                                       Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com I am keeping my cautious hat on even though it is very possible that this bear market rally still has legs.  I just don't trust the market too much at this point but there will still be short-term opportunities.  We could be hit with a new dose of financial failures at any time and we don't know for sure how the market will react.  We could have seen a bottom, but I don't think we'll know until we see how stocks react to the next wave of bad news. The I-fund did particularly well on Friday with the help of a U.S. dollar, which remains in bad shape both technically and fundamentally.  This pennant formation it is currently in is a bearish pattern since it is a continuation pattern, and current the trend is down.  Unless we get some big economic news, I'd expect the dollar to continue to chop around within the pennant for the next few days.                                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Sentiment has been understandably bearish  the last few months, and last week's Sentiment Survey was no exception.  The 44% bulls / 43% bears would be considered overly bearish but the 44% bulls is actually the highest bullish reading the survey has seen since mid-December.  Interestingly, we had 5 weeks where the bullish percentage hit 43%, but this is the first time it has gone over that mark. On a side note:  Time is running out.  This Wednesday brings the end of the comment period for the Participants Choices of TSP Funds Federal Register.  Here is some information.  Please let them know how you feel: FRTIB IFT limit rule posted on Federal  Register  Fax comments online | Sample comments Proposed Rules  |  TSPshareholder.org  |  More on the proposed TSP trading limits That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow! Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers.  Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **. Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey. Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.