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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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Bulls still in control Once again stocks were able to generate a late day rally as all of the gains came in the final two hours of trading. The TSP stock funds picked up gains of 1% to 2.5% as the rally continues. This relentless rally is sure putting the screws to anyone trying to be patient - waiting for a better entry point, expecting a test of the lows, or even looking for another leg down. Earnings have been bad, but not always as bad as estimated, and the bulls are taking the opportunity to push prices higher - much to the chagrin of those waiting on the sidelines. The S&P 500 is now solidly above the declining trading channel, although there is a minor rising wedge that should be tested very soon.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The NYSE is obviously overbought after the rally, and the fact that stocks are staying buoyant in spite of the overbought condition, is a positive for the market.  Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The problem I still see is that support in the major indices continues to get further and further below the current levels, and that could mean a nasty pullback when it comes. So, if you have been riding the wave higher, congratulations for sticking to it. But it seems to be getting a little frothy out there. Being that it is a Friday, and the story remains the same, I am going to take the time to write up something on our premium services, trying to answer one of the question I often get most often from prospective subscribers. What service should I choose if I pick just one? There is no clear cut answer to this. I have picked four different services and each have their own flare and approach. Let me give you my own take on each service, and maybe you will find one that resonates with you. RevShark's TSP Timing: RevShark is a professional trader and hedge fund manager. He is very experienced and usually lets the market dictate his decisions, rather than trying to guess what will happen next. His approach to managing a retirement account is more conservative than the typical day to day trading that he does on his company's website and in his hedge fund. He produces a weekly newsletter each weekend, a brief daily market wrap up commentary, and a recommended TSP allocation. Trader Fred's Trading System: Trader Fred's signals come from a series of very complex computer models that are updated each evening. Since being in the market involves risk, his models tend to be on the conservative side, looking to invest only when the signs are optimal. The system seems to get more aggressive during a bull market, than a bear market. He recently added a more aggressive model for those who want to be a little more active in their accounts. You will see charts like the market strength below, which is updated daily and gives subscribers a little visual of what some of his models are seeing.  Fred also provides a daily ETF chart with buy and sell signals for various Exchange Traded Funds. The Ebbchart System: The Ebbchart is a very aggressive system. It uses various data to produce a particular proprietary pattern for the day, and depending on the day's pattern, tells the system whether to be in stocks or cash. Not only is each day given a pattern, but a series of daily patterns also provides a pattern that determines the longer term buy or sell signals for our TSP.  When the market is rising, the Ebbchart seems to be on top of it, and can grab some big gains very quickly. The downside to an aggressive system is that it can also be caught on the wrong side of the market when it goes down. It is not for the faint of heart, but for those who don't mind risk, it can be very rewarding. Scribbler's TSP & Economic Report: Our newest service from Scribbler. Scribbler is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, with a Bachelors of Science in Economics. He also holds a Master's of Business Administration from Troy University. His twice weekly newsletter is geared toward his strength, the economy. He will give subscribers access to his personal TSP account's allocation. I believe this service fills a gap that we had here at TSP Talk. The free trial continues through the end of April. Please click here for more information. That's all I have for today. Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend! |