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Today's Commentary
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Ready to test the highs
Another nice day for stocks yesterday as the Dow picked up 71-points and
came close to a new multi-year high. A late pullback took the indices
off their best levels of the day after hitting resistance.
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.68% yesterday, the S-fund was up 1.20%, the I-fund
picked up 1.08%, and the F-fund (bonds) added 0.18%.
The S&P 500 ran into resistance at the highs it made in early March. I
don't think this level will be too much trouble for long, but it could pose
a short-term pause - similar to what we saw in
the Dow Transportation Index last week.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transports tested multi-year
highs earlier in the trading day yesterday, but pulled back by the close as
double tops tend to bring in some sellers. The double top earlier this
month triggered a two-day pullback but this market leader quickly found
support, headed back up, and easily broke through the double top 4-days
later.
Making a new high could prove a little more difficult, but I would not rule
it out.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The
Russell 2000 (small caps) did make a new high and was able to hold on and
make a multi-year closing high. This market leader has been
impressive and perhaps it and the Transports are leading the way for the S&P
500 to a new high. Enjoy it, but don't get too complacent.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Despite the new highs, I am still
keeping 2007 in mind. If you remember, the S&P shot up to new highs in
October 2007, after having pulled back sharply during the summer months, but the bulls
were quickly swatted back down and the S&P 500 has not been back to that
level since.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Of course we were facing a
financial meltdown back then and things are different today, but we do have
high unemployment, unrest in the Middle East, signs of inflationary
pressures, and serious debt issues, to name a few, so a continued bull
market is not a slam dunk.
That's the fundamental picture but I rarely rely on that anymore as the
market seems to do whatever it wants to no matter what I think it should
be doing. The trend is up and that's what I am interested in right
now.
I am currently 50% in stocks and 50% in the G-fund. If you
recall, I was raising my G-fund allocation slowly during the rally but I
didn't want to go below 50% stocks with no IFT's left in March. Come
Friday, April 1, we'll have more options, just in time for the March jobs
report.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
Tom Crowley
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Thursday is the 23rd trading day in March:
Friday is the 1st trading day in April:
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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