TSP Talk -
Thrift Savings Plan

You can't win them all

Stocks saw modest losses yesterday as the indices were unable to hold onto early gains. The Dow lost just 22-points but the negative reversal made it seem worse.

                                  

For the TSP, the C-fund lost 0.28% yesterday, the S-fund fell 0.38%, the I-fund gained 0.29% mostly because of the late decline in U.S. stocks, and the F-fund (bonds) was flat. 

You can't fault the market for taking a small breather after being up 6 of the prior 7 days,  but the bulls would like to see the recent broken resistance on the S&P 500 act as support on any pullback, and that doesn't give it much room on the downside as short-term support is basically being tested now. 

                       

The 20 and 50-day EMAs are just below the support lines and a break below those key levels would be a dealer breaker for me.

The Nasdaq has been lagging but it is in a similar situation.  It broke above the recent resistance and that is already being tested as support. 

                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Where the Nasdaq has lagged, the Dow Transportation Index (not shown) continues to lead as it was actually up another 0.4% on the day yesterday.

The dollar has put in a week long rally but it is now testing the strong descending resistance line and the 20-day EMA.  If the bear market in the dollar is going to continue, this area should give it some trouble.
 
                         
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

As we know, a falling dollar can give a boost to stocks and in particular, the stocks of the I-fund.