Yesterday's market action can be taken two ways. The Dow ended the day up 42 points. Great right? Well, the volume was anemic and at one point it was up over 90 points. So did we have a 42 point rally, or a 50 point decline? You know how I talk about the early action being emotional money and the late action the smart money? Here is the intraday chart of the S&P 500...
Was this another market manipulation to suck in the herd to buy so the
"smart money" can sell higher? I still believe the market needs another push down to get the party started. A rally is around the corner but it seems it rarely comes just as my indicators say it's time. The market waits for you to throw in the towel. It rallies when it appears it will never go up again. I don't think we've had that yet. Maybe today.
Today is the 20th trading day in March. The 20th, 21st and 22nd trading days in March are historically the weakest. I hate to use this chart as a primary indicator but I'm looking for anything that reinforces my theory that we need more push down.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Hopefully this means we can get back into stocks later this week.
The dollar was up again yesterday making the I fund a tough place to be lately. I was alerted by a couple of our members that the I fund share price was wrong on www.tsp.gov on Friday which means it was wrong here also. The March 24th closing price was 15.45, not 14.38 as was originally reported. If you use this figure for your spreadsheet or financial software you may need to make an update.
Well, that's all for today. I don't want to overdo my pessimism because I really do think we are close to a buying point. It's just that I'd really like to avoid any kind of meltdown if possible. Currently 100% G fund. See you tomorrow.
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