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Crash draws tentative buyers Stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday after Japan's Nikkei Index lost 10.6% the night before. The Dow was down nearly 300-points out of the gate, but it slowly recovered and closed down "just" 138-points.  As I write this late Tuesday night, the TSP share prices had just been updated for March 15. With the Nikkei down nearly 11% the night before, and U.S. indices rebounding sharply yesterday, I can imagine that it may have been tough for them to come up with a share price for the I-fund. I'm speculating, of course, but it is unusual to not have share prices by this time (10:45 PM ET). Something is wrong. For the TSP, the C-fund lost 1.12% yesterday, the S-fund dropped 0.81%, the I-fund fell 2.68%, and the F-fund (bonds) was flat. The late share prices will have an affect on some premium services today, particularly Trader Fred's report. Fred uses the closing share prices to create his charts and any allocation changes. His programs run for several hours each night before the report is completed, and with the late share prices, the reports will be several hours later than usual. Maybe late Wednesday morning. Do you remember the "flash crash" in May of 2010? "They" say it was a possible technical glitch but I found it very interesting how it played out. The S&P 500 lost 100-points, or 8.5% in a matter of minutes on May 6. Within a few days the S&P had recovered all of that loss. But it took 5-months before we saw prints higher than that close, and during the four months after the flash crash, the S&P tested those lows several times.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk What am I getting at? I don't think there are many flukes in the market. The S&P really needs to plow ahead and break out above that triangle formation in the coming day, or yesterday's lows will likely be tested again over the next several weeks / months. The reversal pattern looks good and we could easily get a test of the 50-day EMA near 1296 and even the 20-day EMA near 1309, but if those levels are not taken out quickly, we will probably be better off selling at those levels. The NYSE is now oversold near the -500 level. In bull markets, this has been a good area to be a buyer as many pullbacks have ended at this level.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk A bear market is a different story as oversold readings are commonly reaching -1000. The Nikkei was up 6% in early trading on Wednesday (Tokyo time) but has since given back about half those gains with a couple of hours left in their trading day. And the way the news is moving, who knows what the situation will be by the time our markets open on Wednesday morning? First it was the dollar. Then it was oil. Now we are watching the Nikkei and radiation levels in Japan for clues to what will happen to our market. Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow. Like I did after the earthquake in Haiti, I set a fundraiser with MercyCorps for anyone looking for a way to help. Please go here for more information. Can you spare a $1 - $10 to help the folks in Japan? Thanks! Tom Crowley
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