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Market Comments

February 15, 2011


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Today's Commentary                                                          
Easy to get complacent

The pattern of weak mornings turning into positive closes has been repeating over and over.  The Dow lost 5-points but the broader indices saw modest gains after the lower open.

                                        
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.26% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.52%, the I-fund added 0.22%, and the F-fund (bonds) picked up 0.19%. 

I will make this quick today because I am getting tired of hearing myself saying the same thing over and over.  I can only imagine what you think. 

The trend is up.  Support is holding.  The indices are extended and probably due for a pullback or consolidation.

                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Dow Transportation Index exploded out of that consolidating diamond formation and is now facing some resistance at the January high.  The likely scenarios for this market leader will either be a quick breakout (cup formation) or a cup & handle formation which creates a shorter consolidation period before a breakout. 

                       

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Today is trading day #11
in February and as you can see in the graph down below, trading day #12 starts a weaker historical period in February.

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow!

Tom Crowley

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