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| Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook) |
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Wild ride Yesterday was the end of the 3rd quarter and we weren't sure if it would be dull with money mangers sitting on gains, or very active as they work on dressing up their portfolios for their quarterly reports. It turned out to be the latter as it was a wild ride.  The Dow lost 30-points but after a positive open, it immediately shot down over 100-points. We saw a steady rally into the early afternoon, but then things became wild again. The C, S and F funds closed down, and the I-fund was up as the dollar lost some ground. The S&P 500 closed with just minor losses but the early sell-off found support at the 20-day EMA again. We actually saw a similar "W" formation at the 20-day EMA in May.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Volume picked up but that could be related to end of the quarter action. I wanted to take a look at the Dow Transports again because there was some interesting action in this "market leader". It had broken blow the 20-day EMA last week, but yesterday it broke below some short-term support before hitting the 50-day EMA and holding, and rebounding.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Will the old support line act as resistance now, and will the S&P 500 follow this "leader?" The other leader, the Nasdaq, has been holding up better and like the S&P 500, is still above the 20-day EMA. The September jobs report will be released tomorrow morning and the estimates are for a loss of 180,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 9.8%. If the numbers are not in line with estimates, expect some serious fireworks in the market again. That's all for today. I have a family birthday going on, and lots of end of the month work to get to. Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow. |