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Market Commentary

January 20, 2017

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TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

Stocks drifted lower on Thursday with modest losses posted in many indices.  The Dow lost 72-points, small caps lagged, and the Dow Transportation Index continues to lead on the upside as it bucked the trend and posted a 0.25% gain. 

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Earnings continue to come in and IBM posted a big number after the close yesterday which could help the market in general, although upside momentum has been slowing and the question on everyone's mind is whether to buy the dip or step aside. 

The Inauguration on Friday comes with much anticipation of a push back from protesters and perhaps that is why investors are holding back from making any commitments to the market, just in case things get out of hand.  A smooth transition of power in this country is expected and that's part of what makes us great, but so is the right to protest.  Unfortunately, if things go too far and it disrupts that smooth transition, the market could very well react negatively.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) remains in its flag formation above the 20-day EMA after a brief break below some rising support (red dashed line) yesterday. 


The DWCPF (S-fund) foundered on Thursday but remains patiently within in its flag formation.  I would have expected these formations to break to the upside by now so it's getting a little concerning that the bulls aren't eager to push anymore.  Perhaps after the Inauguration.

The Dow Transportation Index was one of the strong spots in the market yesterday as the railroad stocks performed very well.  There's nothing overly concerning here but still not blatant bullishness.


The EFA (I-fund) was down on Thursday as the pullback from the double top continues.


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) fell below its relief rally rising channel and the 20-day EMA on Thursday so the relief rally in the bond market may be officially over.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C fund)
Dow Completion (S fund)
EFA (I fund)
Bonds (F fund)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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