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Market Commentary

October 17, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

Stocks were mixed on Monday with the Dow leading the way with an 85-point gain.  We saw more modest gains in the S&P 500 while the small caps and EAFE were fairly flat.  The market leading Transportation Index was down sharply again. 
 
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The action was positive with intraday record highs in the three major indices, but volume was very light again as investors look forward to this week's vote on the budget.

Netflix reported a solid earnings report after the close yesterday and that could help the Nasdaq again today.

I'm still trying to have some kind of vacation but I will be posting something every day, although it may be brief some days. Thanks for your patience!
 

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) continues to grind up the F flag formation.  It is narrowing and they do tend to breakdown, but like the one in August we could see a false upside breakout just to keep us guessing.

      
 

The Dow Transportation Index had its second tough day after I motioned in Friday's commentary that it looked like a rollercoaster getting ready to peak and rollover.  Can the 20-day EMA hold it up or is there more downside to come.

       
 

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) pulled back after Friday's rally.  There is an open gap near 109.60 that should be a draw, but that area could also be a support level - if not the top of that old descending channel.

    


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


10/16/17

Stocks faded toward the end of the day on Friday but still closed with modest gains.  For the week the TSP funds were mixed with the C-fund picking up a small gain, the S-fund had a small loss, and the I-fund had a big week leading the way.  Bonds were up moderately.  Momentum still favors the bulls but the Transportation Index posted a big negative reversal day on Friday that we'll have to keep an eye on.

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Alcoa reports 3rd quarter earnings on October 18 and despite some reports already coming in, traditionally it marks the unofficial start of earnings season.  That gives the market a catalyst that has some teeth in it, although recently all investors seem to care about is whether a tax cut is coming their way - or the way of corporations, which of course would be a big deal.  As economist Larry Kudlow says, earnings are the mother's milk of stock prices so they are the key, but a corporate tax cut and / or a tax reparation would have the same effect by boosting companies' bottom line.

I'm still trying to have some kind of vacation but I will be posting something every day, although it may be brief some days.  Thanks for your patience!


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) remains in a small "F" flag like formation, something we've seen before in recent months.  If you were a day trader you would look at those and buy the bottom of those flags, and sell the top and be flat (no position) by the end of the day.  But you must keep in mind that they do eventually break to the downside, so they are dangerous.  Once they break there tends to be a rush for the exit.  It doesn't have to be a major decline.  Instead it will seek support and support is getting a little thin up here.

      


The DWCPF (S-fund) has been moving sideways to slightly lower which is a basic definition of a bull flag formation.  It will be interesting to see if the bottom of that channel will hold if tested, because there has been virtually no pullback after that big run higher.

       


The Dow Transportation Index has been running along at a pace that seems unsustainable.  On Friday it posted a large negative outside reversal pattern so this will be a big test for the market leader since reversals tend to continue for at least a short while longer, but if this one does continue, that thin support will likely be broken.

    


The EAFE Index (I-fund) had a good day on Friday but with a bit of a negative reversal there.  It's above a rising wedge formation, which usually break down, so we'll see if the upside breakout can hold this week.

    


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rose sharply on Friday filling two open gaps (blue) while opening another near 109.60.  The downtrend may have been broken as it closed at its highest level in 5-weeks.

    


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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