TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter Mobile TSP Talk
Search TSP Talk and tsp.gov
TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk

For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Sponsored Links

Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

- TSP Talk Mobile Version

 

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus

Market Commentary

December 12, 2017

Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               


Stocks were up slightly for most of the day on Monday, but a late push higher gave the major indices a boost into some solid gains.  The Dow added 57-points while small caps were flat and the Transports were down slightly.  Historically, seasonality gets a little more negative this week, but yesterday showed why it seasonality is not a primary indicator.
 
Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 

Yesterday the market was all abuzz about bitcoin.  It wasn't too long ago that you would get shrugs from people when you asked if they had heard of bitcoin.  Now if you put on CNBC it's about all they are talking about.  This past Sunday night the futures markets started to trade bitcoin futures and some say that may have given it more legitimacy, while others see it as a sign of a potential top. (The top has been called for about 10 months now.)

We've been talking about bitcoin in our forum since April 2013 when our member James48843 posted that bitcoin hit $250 for the first time.  Since then it has been a wild up and down ride and with it being over $17,000 per coin right now, it's no wonder it is getting much more attention.

The one question for stock market investors is whether people will start selling stocks to buy bitcoin, like we see with bonds or gold from time to time, but so far there is no evidence of that.  As a matter of fact it seems to be a wait and see approach as there were only 4000 bitcoin futures contracts traded on the first day of trading, or about $70m, which is nothing in comparison to other futures markets.  Perhaps there will be a day when that happens, when bitcoin is an alternative to stocks, but right now I wouldn't be using it as any kind of indicator.  If anything, bitcoin seems to be an alternative to gold judging by the weakness in the gold market over the last 3 months.

Today starts the 2-day FOMC meeting and this will be Janet Yellen's last meeting.  Seeing stocks rally in front of a Fed meeting is nothing new, but we know they are going to raise rates tomorrow and if they give any indication or more rate hikes than we've been anticipating, the market could get a little nervous and we could see some volatility.  Notice I said volatility and not selling, because lately the downside action has been bought so quickly that you could miss it if you blinked.  But a series of rate hikes could be a drag on stocks, particularly if we start seeing 10 year Treasury yields flirting with 3%.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) closed at another new high yesterday and it remains above that old rising resistance line.  That's a sign of being overbought, but 2017 seems to be the year of the overbought market.

      


The small caps / S-fund were flat yesterday as most of the attention was given to the large caps again, just like on Friday. 

        


As you may know, our S-fund is actually a small and mid-cap fund and it usually closes somewhere in between the return of the S&P 500 and the small cap Russell 2000 index.  The small caps have been lagging lately as the Russell is well off the recent highs, so it's the mid-caps that have been keeping our S-fund in positive territory lately.  This chart actually looks a little troubling for the short-term.

        


The EAFE Index (I-fund) was up on the day but it closed near the lows of the day.

      

      
Just for giggles, here's a 2+ year weekly chart of bitcoin...
   


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) pulled back and remains in the pennant formation and below the blue rising wedge, but trying to hold at the 20-day EMA.

      
 

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.  Thanks!
 

  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 
 
S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
Source: https://finance.google.com/finance

TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer

Copyright © 2003 - 2017
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., P.O. Box 13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns