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Market Commentary

April 28, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

Stocks were up Thursday, but with mixed results.  The Nasdaq led the way as technology stocks continue to do well.  The Dow (+6-points) and S&P 500 were flat as we saw weakness in the oil and financial sectors, while small caps and the I-fund were also within 0.1% of even.

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After the bell on Thursday Amazon and Alphabet (Google) reported good earnings and that could help the Nasdaq again today.

The large and small cap stocks (outside of the Nasdaq) have stalled since the big 2-day rally, but there has been no major rush yet for them to fill those large open gaps we've been watching  The Transports did fill its gap Thursday morning as it lagged early, but it reversed and closed higher on the day.

We get a 1st quarter GDP estimate this morning (Friday) and forecasts are in the +1.0% to +1.1% range.  This is the last report before next week's FOMC meeting.  Not many believe the Fed will raise rates next week, but rather wait until June, but they could always say something that moves the market, and the GDP could be a catalyst.

The S&P 500 / C-fund traded back and forth most of the day but managed to close closer to the highs of the day with a slight gain.  A double top and large open gaps may not kill a bull market, but it could pause it.  Strong earnings after the close from some big companies yesterday may give investors a reason to change that.


The DWCPF (S-fund) ended the day up a tick and it closed above the March 1 high again.  You can see those gaps so that is what investors are concerned about.  Well, maybe not investors so much as traders.


The Dow Transportation Index filled its gap completely as it opened down sharply on Thursday, but rebounded off of the 20 and 50-day EMAs and closed with a solid gain.  That's not bad action at all and it's what the bulls want to see happen on the S&P chart...  fill those gaps quickly and jump right back.


The EFA was fairly flat but I noticed the German DAX and London FTSE, two of the largest holding in the I-fund, may be running into some resistance.  The DAX hit the top of its trading channel and has a large open gap below.  The FTSE rebounded and stalled at the 50-day EMA, which it broke down from last week.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rallied back and has its sights on the open gap above 109.25, but there is a little bit of resistance at yesterday's high.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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