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Market Commentary

May 26, 2017

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TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

Stocks made it 6 positive days in a row since last Wednesday's "shock day" and it appears the bears have laid down again letting the bulls have their way.  The Dow gained 71-points on the day.  The Transportation Index led, as oil plummeted, while small caps and the I-fund lagged.

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted new record highs and as we head into a holiday weekend, we don't expect the bears to put up much of a fight today - except maybe late in the day if there are any long weekend jitters from traders. 

Energy stocks sunk yesterday as oil plummeted over 5%.  That helped the Transports as we might expect, but the broader market shook it off rather well.  Is that a good positive divergence, or is this just pre-holiday unpredictability?  The weakness is oil was related to a decision by OPEC to make a smaller than expected cut in production.


To repeat from yesterday, Monday is Memorial Day so the markets will be closed.  Seasonality toward the end of May has historically been a little better than the middle of the month, but it's not exactly the Christmas / New Years bullish bias.  Today is the last negative average day of the month.

From www.tsp.gov"HOLIDAY CLOSING - Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, May 29th in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (May 29th) will be processed Tuesday night (May 30th), at Tuesday's closing share prices."

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) jumped to new highs again on Thursday, breaking several resistance levels.  It's been quite a run since last week's sell-off and if there's any question about this strength it would be whether it is related to a normally positive pre-holiday bias. 


The DWCPF (S-fund) rallied above some key resistance (blue dashed line) on Thursday, but it reversed and closed near the lows of the day and finds itself back in that bear flag formation and continues to lag the large caps.

The Dow Transportation Index had a big day pushing back into the large bear flag.  A big part of that boost was the 5% sell-off in oil on Thursday and without that, the Transports have had a difficult time keeping up with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was flat on the day as it digests some big recent gains.


The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund rallied to new highs on Thursday, but reversed after breaking above the rising resistance line and created a negative reversal day.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up slightly and remains in a bull flag with two large open gaps below.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  Have a great weekend!  Happy Memorial Day and remember those who have sacrificed for our country.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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