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Market Commentary

June 18, 2018

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

here was a lot of red on Friday, but the bulls did a very good job of holding back the bears as they took control in the afternoon and turned deeper losses into minor declines.  The Dow lost 85-points but percentage-wise the broader indices were just barely on the negative side.  Bonds were up.
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I would score that one a win for the bulls but it's getting a little tougher for them now that the busy week is behind them.  We could look at it and say they survived a barrage of events that could have taken them down, but now there isn't a whole lot to look forward to, and investors may be looking to take profits, especially now that the Fed has taken a more hawkish stance.

Reminder:  I apologize, but I'm going to be in and out of the office over the next couple of weeks [starting 6/7], doing some traveling.  I will be checking emails and posting premium alerts as usual, and I will posting something here everyday, but it may be quick updates and my timeframes may be off a little.  The AutoTracker may also be updated later than normal.

The S&P 500 / C-fund tried to rollover, but the strong close turned the day into a positive reversal day.  That tends to bode well for early trading the next day but there is still some resistance in the 2790 - 2800 so it won't be too easy for the bulls.  There is more room on the downside so it may be now or never for the bears.


The small caps (S-fund) got back nearly all of the early losses on Friday, and while it is above most forms of resistance, it is fairly extended here and a little digestion of the recent gains may be healthy.  There is decent support near 1436 so that's where the bears will be tested because dip buyers could show up there again.


The EAFE Index (I-fund) is still lagging badly as the dollar continues to outperform the Euro.  Yes, there was a positive reversal on Friday and then there is the open gap near 70.25, but from there the resistance gets thicker.  I suspect a test of the 200-day EMA again in the coming week or so may be in the cards.


The AGG (Bonds /F-fund) was up of Friday but closed near the lows of the day as bonds did the opposite of what stocks were doing.  Three of the four major open gaps have now been filled (blue) so there is now just one open gap (red) left to consider on any further pullback from the late May peak.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading, and thanks for your patience over the the time I am out and about.  We'll see you tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
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