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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

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Market Commentary

June 28, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

Stocks opened lower on Tuesday with the selling accelerated in the afternoon and by the close both the Dow and the Nasdaq had lost abut 100-points, with the latter being a significantly larger percentage loss.  Oil was up most of the day but after hours some preliminary industry data suggested inventories are rising and much of those gains were given back.

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As we talked about yesterday, investors turned their eyes toward D.C. for the market's catalyst, and after it was apparent that the vote on the Healthcare Bill was going to be delayed in the Senate, they used it as an excuse to do some selling. 

Most of the damage was done in the tech sector, but the selling was fairly broad with losses in the large and small caps, but the dollar also fell and that helped the I-fund outperform.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell below the 20-day EMA for the first time in about 6-weeks.  That's certainly not alarming at this point, and it's how indices breathe in and out, but we also saw one of the rising support lines break so when technical roadblocks are taken out they start to add up to something more significant.  The next lines of concern are likely the 241 area and then the 50-day EMA.  Two cracks = yellow flag.  If it becomes 3 or 4, then we may turn those flags to red.  One problem with the downside is that it tends to unfold faster then the upside, so sometimes you have to play defense before you see red, or you could be stuck.


The DWCPF (S-fund) lost about 1% but again this chart doesn't show any major breakdown yet.  If it moves below 1215 - 1210, then that will be a different story. 


The Nasdaq 100 was hit hard on Tuesday and that 1.8% loss could be considered a bear flag breakdown, but the 50-day EMA is key right now, which is where it came to rest at the close yesterday. 


The Dow Transportation Index was down 0.62%, so it modesty outperformed despite oil rallying on the day.  You can see the support levels that matter here as well... 9350, 9300, and ~9237 (50-day EMA).  


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) held up well because the dollar tanked, but also because of some bullish talk from the ECB president Mario Draghi, who was optimistic about a pick up in inflation in Europe.  That's why yields were rising in Europe and the U.S.


The dollar hit new 2017 lows yesterday, helping the I-fund but sending bond prices lower.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke down from its rising wedge and the rising trading channel.  There is more strong support rising and currently near 109.50, should this pullback continue.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.   We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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