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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

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Market Commentary

November 17, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               


Stocks rebounded on Thursday erasing the losses of the prior two days.  The Dow jumped 187-points on the day, or +0.8%, as the dip buyers mocked the bears after their first 0.5% decline in two months on  Wednesday.  It was a broad rally across most indices and for now the bulls have been able to defend the support that was being tested.
 
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A few strong earnings reports got the ball rolling yesterday, but a Tax Reform Bill passed in the House of Representatives yesterday so tax cuts are one step closer to a reality, and investors rejoiced.  It's not a done deal yet since the Senate still has their own bill to pass, but the goal for the House was to get theirs through by Thanksgiving, and that has now been done.

This may be a major turning point after just a slight pullback in the indices, but before we get too excited about this move, a rebound wasn't a total surprise since the indices had gotten oversold in the short-term while successfully testing support that tends to hold on the first test.  I would not be surprised to see stocks grind sideways or even slip back again now that the emotional House tax plan is a done deal with more steps to get through before tax reform actually passes.

One interesting angle to view the rest of the year is that since tax rates may be going lower for many people in 2018, there may not be much selling to end this year since 2017 capital gains could be taxed at a higher rate then if they wait until next year to sell.  Perhaps even January could be a bad month because of that?


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) bounced up and tested some weak resistance, which held - but may not be a major factor.  Whether we see new highs in the coming days, I don't know, but the internal issues with this market have not disappeared yet because of one oversold rebound.  Profit taking wouldn't be a surprise because the Senate bill is not coming this month and there may see some invertors sock away gains until then.

      


The small cap Russell 2000 index jumped 1.56% after lagging for the last month or so.  As you can see, there was some technical reasons to see some kind of rebound here as a couple of support lines intersected near 1450.  But it remains below some possible overhead resistance.

      
 


The Dow Transportation Index also neared some strong support areas before rebounding.  There's some resistance near yesterday's highs but it wouldn't be a surprise to see at test back up near the 50-day EMA after the sharp pullback.

      


The EAFE (I-fund) gapped up yesterday (red gap) while filling another (blue).  69.75 would be some interesting resistance to test should it move up there next week.

       
 

The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund rallied 1% after Wednesday's big reversal day.  Two gaps were filled on the way up yesterday (blue) and another one was opened (red).  It is now testing the key 50-day EMA.

       

      
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) came down as it was risk on for stocks so the safety plays moved lower.  The top of the descending resistance line held as support.

       
 

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  Have  great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
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EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
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iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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