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Market Commentary

July 24, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

The Nasdaq finally ended its winning streak on Friday after 10 consecutive positive days, but it only lost 2-points.  The Dow lost another 31-points but overall it was another flat day for stocks to end the week, and all three of the TSP funds picked up about a half of a percent on the week, as did the bond fund.

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The Transportation Index was reeling again early Friday but closed strongly, although with a small loss, and the 3.4% pull from the recent highs found support at the 50-day EMA.
There is a two-day FOMC meeting this week which concludes on Wednesday, and while there is no expectations of a rate hike, the policy statement can be a market mover, and we know how much the market enjoys Janet Yellen's efforts to keep things running smoothly.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was down slightly on Friday after the S&P made new highs on Thursday.  The trend remains up but there are two open gaps below that are always a threat to be filled.  The question is what would be on the horizon to push the indies down at this point?  Probably something political as the healthcare and tax reform debates remain in the headlines.


The weekly chart show the relentless trek higher - not only since the election, but since the last correction and 5% decline that we've seen in a year and a half.  The chart is potentially hitting some overhead resistance, but that resistance is still rising. 


The DWCPF (S-fund) pulled back a little more moderately on Friday and the intraday low was at some potential breakout support near 1245, where it intersects with some other short-term rising support.  That looks to be a key level for this week.


The Dow Transportation Index pulled back sharply last week creating a failed breakout, but it did find some support on Friday after successfully holding at the 50-day EMA.


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) pulled back on Friday as we saw some trouble in the German and French markets.  It filled one small gap but there are others below and with the damage we see in some European market charts, I suspect they could be getting some attention soon.


Here is the German DAX which broke down from a large bear flag on Friday, dipping into that large open gap from April.


The French CAC Index also made a new multi-month low after filling that April open gap and there is possible double support at Friday's lows so it will be an interesting start for the week here.


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) finished filling that gap and is nearing some recent highs.  With the Fed on deck this week and some potential interest rate discussion, the bond market could get a little volatile this week.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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