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Market Commentary

January 18, 2018

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

There they go again.  The Dow jumped 323-points and closed above 26,000 for the first time as the "melt up" continues.  We saw gains of near 1% in many indices as the negative reversal day on Tuesday was quickly forgotten, and the dip buyers didn't want to wait another minute.
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We've joked around about the pullbacks lasting minutes and hours these days, rather than the normal days or weeks, so the dip buyers did not hesitate to jump on stocks after some banks reported earnings Wednesday morning.  Ironically, a few of the financial companies that reported earnings closed down on the day, but that didn't stop investors from jumping into other sectors.  But it was Apple's announcement that it plans to open a new facility in the U.S. and hire 20,000 new employees that seemed to get the bulls excited, and why not?  This was what the repatriation of overseas money was supposed to do for the economy.

It's getting almost comical and who really knows how long this can last, but logically we know it should pause at some point.  The question is, will the recent perfect storm of lower taxes, deregulation, and global economic growth keep it going indefinitely - at least longer than most would expect or feel is reasonable?

Although government employees and government benefit recipients may be concerned, investors do not seem very worried about a potential government shutdown at the end of the week if a deal can't be reached.  Of course most expect the can to be kicked down the road again if a deal isn't reached, so why worry?  If that's the case and something isn't done by Friday morning, we might see some selling on Friday from those who may want to lock in profits before that deadline.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) traded within its steep rising channel, hitting the top and bottom of that channel for basically a third day in a row.  You can see that stocks were in a rising trading channel heading into the new year, but it has moved into another gear once the new year started.


The small caps / S-fund posted a decent day as well, but it is back within the wedge formation after the breakout failed on Tuesday.  Rising wedges tend to break down, but in this market, who knows?


The EAFE Index (I-fund) posted a negative outside reversal day yesterday after a positive reversal by the dollar.  I keep mentioning the open gaps below, and since gaps tend to get filled, they are potential downside targets on any pullback. 


The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund was flat on the day, also posting a negative reversal, and technically this chart does have a few problems.  That could be a bear flag coming off the recent high, and now it has closed below that rising support line.


The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was down again as it filled the gap yesterday and dropped again, and now it is back below support and heading toward that 200-day EMA again for another test.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll  see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
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EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
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Source: https://finance.google.com/finance

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